publication
2025-04-04 14:45
March data from the American labor market surprised economists in almost every respect, showing a very strong increase in employment and simultaneous increase in the unemployment rate. There is still no trace of Doge's activity in the data.
Number of jobs in non-farm PayRolls in March 2025 She was 228,000 higher than a month earlier – the Government Office of Labor Statistics (BLS) informed. This result is much better than the market consensus at 135,000.
A month earlier, only 117,000 came in the US economy. full -time jobs (in relation to the originally reported 151,000), which at that time was only a slightly lower than the expectations of economists. At that result, a decrease in employment in federal administration of 10,000 influenced full -time jobs. However, the data for March showed that only 4,000 went to the labor market. people employed by the US government (not counting mail employees). In addition, employment in local authorities increased by 17,000, and in the state by 6,000 Together it gives 19 thousand. new jobs created in the public sector.
In turn, employment in the private sector increased by 209 thousand. full -time jobs, which was a much better result than market expectations at 127 thousand. Here in February there was an increase in 116 thousand. full -time jobs (after revision from 140,000).
Earlier, the statistics of “Payrolls” for January only slightly disappointed. On the other hand, the report for December was clearly better than expectations (307,000 after a revision of 256,000) after the data for November positively surprised analysts. It all happened after the dramatically poor results of October, which was then dropped on a hurricane carb and a strike of Boeing employees. It could have been the climax of cooling the labor market in the USA. After only 142 thousand arrived in August. full -time jobs, and in July only 114 thousand The exception was the data for September, which indicated an increase in employment by as much as 254 thousand. full -time jobs, although later they were revised down to 223 thousand.
In the whole of 2024, almost 200,000 more arrived in non -agricultural sectors. full -time jobs. This is less than in 2023 (240,000) and clearly less than in the 2022 postlockdown year, when as a result of breaking with the sanitary regime it arrived (or rather rather returned) on average 381 thousand. full -time jobs.
The unemployment rate in March 2025 in the United States increased to 4.2% after it rose from 4.0% to 4.1% in February. It is also a big surprise, because economists predicted its stabilization. In absolute numbers, this translated into an increase in the number of unemployed by 31,000 with an increase in the number of working by 201 thousand. and a decrease in passive population by 56,000. These are the results of an independent survey (BAEL), with the help of which BLS estimates the scale of unemployment.
The average hourly rate in March 2025 was equal to USD 36 and was 0.25% higher than a month earlier and by 3.83% higher than a year ago. Here, an increase was expected by 0.3% MDM and 4.1% yard. This means that the actual wage increase was slightly lower than the market consensus. The average working time remained unchanged at 34.2 hours a week.
