Behind the Russian stock market, the worst week from the beginning of the Kremlin's aggression to Ukraine. This is the effect of both Donald Trump's decision to impose the largest import duties for nearly 100 years to a number of countries, as well as the provisions of OPEC+ countries with a rapid increase in oil production, which led to the breakdown of its prices.
According to the stock market data, the capitalization of the Moscow stock market fell by 2 trillion of rubles (approx. PLN 91 billion) within two days. On Wednesday at the end of the day it was 55.04 trillion rubles (PLN 2.52 trillion), and on Friday in the evening – 53.02 trillion rubles (PLN 2.43 trillion). The index of the Moscow stock exchange, which includes 43 largest companies, lost 8.05 percent at the end of the week. This was the worst result from the end of September 2022.when the market was overwhelmed by panic due to partial mobilization to the army announced by Putin.
Economists break their hands – and present gloomy forecasts.
At the end of the day, on Friday, Sber's shares fell by 5.2 percent, Gazprom by 4.9 percent, WTB [drugiego co do wielkości banku w Rosji] by 6 percent, rosing by 3.9 percent, and Łukoil by 4.6 percent The company's shares in Mieczeniał [jednego z największych rosyjskich przedsiębiorstw górniczo-metalurgicznych] They lost over 7 percent, Aeroflot – 4.8 percent, and Novatek – 5.4 percent
Prices are heading at the neck
– A powerful crisis is developing before our eyes – said Evgeny Kogan, an investment banker and a professor from the University of Economics. Clinics imposed by Trump to a number of countries radically change the rules of playing in global trade and attract the risk of the third recession to the global economy from the beginning of the century. Analysts from JPMOGRAN – one of the largest financial holdings in the world – estimate its probability at 60 percent.
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It makes him The raw materials are cheap. Within two days the price of Brent oil dropped by 12 percent. and at some point it reached $ 64.06. (approx. PLN 251) for a barrel – this is the lowest level since April 2021. Also, procession contracts for copper in the same period fell by 11 percent. The US stock indexes lost 5 percent on Thursday, just as on Friday. On the other hand, the stock exchanges in Europe closed on this day with a decrease in 4-5 percent. – After China announced a retaliation duties in the amount of 34 percent. for all goods from the USA.
According to Jelena Kożuchowa, an analyst from the New York investment company Veles Capital, global trade wars mean a decrease in raw materials prices, higher import prices and a new round of inflation for the Russian economy. Cheap oil can also lead to budget problems and entail a decrease in the value of the ruble in the coming months. – The situation can be saved by progress in peaceful talks, but it is not visible yet – says the specialist.
“Clock ticks”
Donald Trump threatened that if a breakthrough does not occur through Russia, he would apply secondary duties on its crude oil. Shortly afterwards, Kiriłł Dimitrijew, a key adviser to Vladimir Putin for business and head of the Russian direct investment fund (RFPI), went to Washington. It was the first visit of a high -ranking Moscow representative in the USA from the beginning of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
However, she did not bring any breakthrough. After a conversation with the Russian Marco Rubio, the Secretary of State of the USA, said that Washington is willing to wait a few more weeks, but not months – because “the clock is ticking”.
From mid-February, when American-Russian negotiations began, Gazprom shares have already dropped by 30 percent.Norilsk Nickel [przedsiębiorstwa górniczo-hutniczego] by 25 percent, and 28 percent According to Jewgeniy, Kogan may not end there.
I’m Ashley Davis as an editor, I’m committed to upholding the highest standards of integrity and accuracy in every piece we publish. My work is driven by curiosity, a passion for truth, and a belief that journalism plays a crucial role in shaping public discourse. I strive to tell stories that not only inform but also inspire action and conversation.
