Unprecedented Moving of the S&P rating agency announcing that forecasts for all countries will be re -evaluated by US Customs
Stocking agents following the evolution of shanghai stock market price evolution, Photo: Nicolas Asfouri / AFP / Profimedia Images
The Global S&P Financial Evaluation Agency announced on Friday that it reviews all its macroeconomic forecasts, against the backdrop of Customs announced by President Donald Trump on Wednesday, a decision that will probably feed the fears of a new loan relegation, reports Reuters, quoted by Agerpres.
S&P justifies its decision by the fact that the size and size of the new expectations have exceeded the most expectations.
Revised forecasts will be advertised next week, although initial estimates include inflation increase in the US almost 4% by the end of the year, compared to a 3% forecast level. Also, the impact on the US economy will depend on the level of retrival measures and the way in which the income from customs duties is used, especially if they will finance tax reductions in a statement.
Even in a scenario in which there are fiscal reductions and “relatively modest” return measures, GDP growth will probably be three to four-point decima lower than the latest forecasts of the agency.
“We still do not see a recession as defined by NBER (depth, duration, broad dispersion, not just two consecutive quarters of decreased economic activity) in the next 12 months. But we admit that the subjective probability of a recession in the next 12 months has now climbed 30%-35%, from 25%in March,” the agency appreciates.
And in the rest of the world, you will probably worsen the growth forecasts.
The big savings, such as the euro area and China, will probably have lower adjustments, about a quarter percentage per year, while the lighter economies, which depend on the US commercial point of view, will probably record wider reviews.
“This is the case, for example, for Ireland and Switzerland in Europe and the rapid growth in the Asia-Pacific region,” explained S&P.
China announced 34% customs fees on Friday for all American imports
The analysts of the Agency expect other countries in the following days to respond, by various methods, to the customs duties announced by President Donald Trump on Wednesday. “These potential retrival measures will put additional pressure on the evolution of the economy”, warns S&P.
China announced on Friday that it will impose 34% “mutual” customs duties for all imports from the United States, while Japan said today that it is considering “unprecedented” response to the new taxes announced by US President Donald Trump.
“We already complete the first pack of countermeasures in response to the customs duties imposed on the steel and, at present, we are preparing additional measures to protect our interests and companies, if the negotiations fail,” said Ursula von der Leyen, head of the European Commission.
“We will also carefully follow the indirect effects that these taxes could have. We cannot absorb a global capacity surplus, and we will not accept the dumping on our markets,” said von der Leyen, in the context of the community block is preparing for a wave of cheaper exports from China and other regions, which will be excluded from the American market.
It has warned of the impact that the disassembly of global commercial order will have consumers and companies. “Millions of citizens will face larger invoices on food. Medications will cost more, as well as transport. Inflation will grow,” she said.
