The budget does not fasten and you need PLN 30 billion in savings. Here are the possibilities
After August 2025, the state budget deficit exceeded PLN 172 billion – results from the estimated implementation of the budget published on Monday by the Ministry of Finance. The state's income in the first eight months of this year reached over PLN 362.7 billion, while the expenses amounted to almost PLN 534.8 billion.
How to evaluate this result? “There were no surprises. Neither negative nor positive” – Comment on the economists of Bank Pekao in an analysis published on Tuesday.
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They note that the income of the Ministry of Finance only in August amounted to less than PLN 49 billion and expenses PLN 64.2 billion. The deficit was therefore PLN 15.3 billion, which is 1/3 less than average in a month in 2025 (PLN 21 billion), but not less enough for the budget to be on the path of implementation of the year -round deficit.
Experts calculated that the deficit for the last 12 months amounted to PLN 294 billion, i.e. it is already PLN 5 billion higher than planned in the Act on 2025 (PLN 289 billion). “If the Ministry of Finance wants to avoid the need to amend the budget, it must start spending less than last year “ – they indicate.
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Bank Pekao
The budget does not fasten. Where to find savings?
Meanwhile, in the last eight months it has been spending on average 7 percent. More and in September it will have a large tranche of BGK bonds for redemption. This means that The Ministry of Finance must find savings for around PLN 30 billion in relation to expenses planned in the budget act.
So far, the Ministry of Finance has denied the amendment to the budget act. According to Economists, Pekao is not worth arguing with him in this matter. They suggest where you can potentially find savings.
See also: Ukraine's finances under the pressure of war. The government assumes a record deficit in 2026.
“Definitely in local governmentswhich this year already received PLN 134 billion from PIT (compared to PLN 48.6 billion a year earlier), which allowed them to generate 17 billion surplus in budgets at the end of the second quarter. This gives space to the Ministry of Finance to Cutting the subsidy For local governments in the second half of the year, “experts suggest.
Add that The ministry may transfer some expenses from this year's budget to the future or to non -budget fundse.g. financed by BGK. Maybe also delay VAT returns in Decemberwhich can generate Even PLN 10 billion in additional revenues in 2025. (at the expense of influence in January 2026).
Budget deficit. Why is it growing?
In August, the state budget revenues amounted to less than PLN 49 billion, almost the same as in July and at the same time by PLN 4 billion less than a year ago. Pekao economists indicate that The income from PIT is mainly responsible for a decrease in income in an annual basiswhich since this year go much more to local governments than the state budget.
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Bank Pekao
As for other taxes, it was possible to observe in August reflection of VAT income (from 1 percent in July to 10 % y/y), lack of reflection of excise income (from -1 percent in July to only 2 % r/rw August) and further erosion of income from VATwhich were 10 percent Higher than in August last year, their dynamics as an annual steering sum decreased from 11.8 to 11.1 percent. r/r. CIT remains a lighter budget point, which began to grow with the improvement of the financial results of companies.
