Donald Trump announced that there would be a “exchange of territories for the benefit of both sides” between Russia and Ukraine. However, the President of Ukraine Wołodymyr Zelanski categorically rejected this assumption. He argued that “Ukrainians they will not give their lands occupiers “.
Putin presented the plan to the envoy of Trump, Steve Witkoff in Moscow. According to reports, the agreement will require Ukraine Donbass, which is mostly under Russia. Putin was to tell Witkoff that he would agree to a complete suspension of weapons if Ukraine withdraws his forces from the eastern regions, which would give Russia control over Donetsk and Lugansk, as well as over the Crimean Peninsula.
The upcoming peak in Alaska opens the issue of the end of the war. There are several possible scenarios – some are more, others less likely.
Scenario first: Putin agrees to suspend a weapon
According to the German newspaper “Bild”, the Russian side proposed only “sector weapon suspension”such as mutual waiver of attacks on energy facilities or large cities behind the front line. Putin, however, in no way wants to stop the Russian offensive on this front, although the United States in return proposed the abolition of sanctions against Russia and the conclusion of new economic agreements, as reported by the newspaper. “Bild” adds that Trump even proposed a “exchange of territories” that would allow Russia to preserve the part of the occupied Donbass in exchange for giving further territories.
Continuation of the material under the video
CNN writes that it is It is unlikely that Putin agree to suspend a weapon, in which the front line will remain unchanged. The Kremlin currently transforms gradual profits on the front line into strategic benefits and sees no reason to stop this progress, now when it is at the top. Even the threat of secondary sanctions against China and India will not change the current military bill. At least until October, Putin will want to fight, because – it seems – he wins for now
Scenario second: pragmatism and more negotiations
The peak can lead to further conversations at a later dateconsolidating Russian prey when winter and the front line arrives, the front will freeze – both literally and in terms of military.
Until then, Russian forces They can get Pokrowsk, Konstantynówka and Kupiansk And ensure a solid position to withdraw and regroup. Russia could then resume the fight in 2026 or use diplomacy to seal these achievements. Putin could also focus again on the issue of elections in Ukraine (superiors because of the war) to undermine Zelanski's ID, and maybe even replace him with a pro -Russian candidate.
Third scenario: Ukraine will keep another two years
In this scenario, American and European military assistance for Ukraine will reduce the concessions on the front line in the coming months, and Putin will strive for negotiations because His army once again failed to fulfill his obligations.
Pokrowsk may fall, other eastern bastions of Ukraine may be threatened, but Ukraine may experience a slowdown in Russia's progress, and The Kremlin may even feel the effects of sanctions.
EPA / Angelo Carconi / PAP
Wołodymyr Zelnski, the president of Ukraine, gives a speech during a conference on the reconstruction of Ukraine in Rome, on July 10, 2025.
European powers have already developed advanced plans distribution of forces in Ukraine as part of a security guarantee. Tens of thousands of European NATO soldiers could be placed around Kiev and other large cities, providing Ukraine logistic and intelligence support. According to CNN This is the best that Ukraine can count on.
Fourth scenario: disaster for Ukraine and NATO
Putin may see cracks in the unity of the West after a peak with Trump, which It will improve American-Russian relationsbut he will leave Ukraine alone.
Europe could do everything in her power to support the sticks, but without American support it would not be able to tilt the scales of victory. The small profits of Russia in eastern Ukraine could translate into a slow retreat of Ukrainian forces on a flat, open area between Donbass and central cities: Dnieper, Zaporżyż and Kiev. Defense of Ukraine may be weak, and The military crisis in Kiev can turn into a political disasterwhen Zelanski applies for wider mobilization to support the defense of the country.
Kiev's security would then be threatened, and Putin's troops would grow in strength. European powers could recognize that it is better to fight Russia in Ukraine than later in the territory of the European Union. However, European leaders ultimately do not have a political mandate to join the war about the territory in Ukraine. Putin is still moving forward and NATO cannot give a uniform answer. This Europe's nightmare and would already mean the end of Ukraine's sovereignty.
Scenario fifth: Putin disaster
Russia is still struggling with problems, devoting the lives of thousands of soldiers a week for relatively small benefits, while sanctions weaken her alliance with China and income from India.
EPA / Anatoly Maltsev / PAP
Press conference of Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin in Helsinki, July 16, 2018.
Moscow's financial reserves are shrinking, just like income. Dissatisfaction among Moscow elites may increase due to the Kremlin rejection of diplomatic options in the war for not to maintain a substitute conflict with NATO. Trump's power may weaken power, and the attention of the Americans after the Congress elections in the middle of his term return to traditional norms of foreign policy, consisting in opposing Russia and China.
In this scenario, the Kremlin could reach a point where its resistance to the difficult reality and economic difficulties for his own society would become toxic. At first glance, Putin seems strong, but According to CNN, he can be exposed as a fundamentally weak person. The problem in this scenario is that it remains the greatest hope of Western strategists who cannot accept NATO's full accession to the war to help Ukraine to win, nor Kiev's ability to recover Moscow.
I’m Ashley Davis as an editor, I’m committed to upholding the highest standards of integrity and accuracy in every piece we publish. My work is driven by curiosity, a passion for truth, and a belief that journalism plays a crucial role in shaping public discourse. I strive to tell stories that not only inform but also inspire action and conversation.
