Trump accidentally hit Moscow. “Putin's ambitions crushed”
Irronically, the customs war and the reckless Trump's trade policy made him Russian actions have fallen rapidly and oil prices have reached the lowest levels for four years – Potentially sinking the Russian economy in a way that the US president tried to avoid.
Brent oil currently costs only $ 63. (at the current exchange rate PLN 246), while the Urals, a key Russian export mix, fell to almost $ 50. (PLN 195) for a barrel. It is much below what the Kremlin needs to achieve the profitability threshold, which is A serious blow to the already fragile economy. Low prices threaten the strained Russian budget and almost guarantee another devaluation of the ruble in the coming months.
RBK Daily, a Russian Business Gazeta, today stated that the fall in oil prices “creates serious problems for the Russian GDP, the state budget and inevitably lead to a collapse of the ruble course.”
What was for Putin's hope for an opportunity to alleviate the sanctions and economic recovery, now becomes a deepening crisis.
But a breakdown is not only an economic blow – it is also a direct consequence of Putin's refusal to conclude peace in Ukraine and constant opposition to international norms.
Putin has converted
Over the years, Putin counted on close relationships with Trump in the White House, which could lead to sanction and rapid reintegration of Russia with the world community. The Russian leader risked that Trump's admiration for strongmen and the “America First” approach [Najpierw Ameryka] will translate into economic possibilities for Moscow. However, as the oil market decreases, and the Russian economy begins to fall apart, the dream of relief seems to be out of control.
The Russian authorities are now trying to protect the country against a deteriorating economic storm, caused by the new American duties. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Pieskov promises to do “everything necessary” to minimize the damage.
However, the reality is gloomy: Urals has dropped by 25 percent. Below the budget level, to almost $ 50 For a barrel – almost $ 20 (78 PLN) Less than expected for this year.
The destructive influence of external shocks on the Russian economy is not a stranger for the Kremlin. Putin and his financial team are well aware that the last two serious economic crises in 2008 and 1998 were caused events that Russia had no influence on: global credit crisis and Asian financial crisis.
Each time Russia's economic stability was destroyed by turmoil in international markets, which revealed the extreme susceptibility of its economy to global forces and led to a wave of bankruptcies.
Disadvantages of the Russian economy
Because the revenues from crude oil and gas are responsible for about 30 percent. Russia's budget, a decrease in energy prices is a serious fiscal threat. Correction of raw materials prices can destabilize the federal budget, especially since rapidly growing military expenditure on conflict in Ukraine has already increased the deficit and exhausted national reserves.
Putin's excessive dependence on oil prices has always been risky. His administration failed to diversify the Russian economy, making the country susceptible to fluctuations in global markets. The decrease in crude oil prices, driven by Trump's trade policy, only exposed the deep structural defects of the Russian economy. While Trump could once suggest relieving sanctions, in fact his policy pushed Russia to further economic insulation and dependence on China.
The Moscow stock exchange fell by 2 % yesterday, noting the 14th day of losses in a row – the longest run Loss since Russia's insolvency in 1998. Actions remain largely beyond the reach of foreign investors due to ongoing sanctions, although in the first days of the Putin-Trump alliance there was a short interest window.
Meanwhile, the perspective of suspension of weapons in Ukraine is becoming more and more distant. As Russia's economic perspectives deteriorate Putin is unlikely to strive for peace conversations or negotiations. His regime, already besieged due to economic instability, will not be willing to make concessions in Kiev. Instead of striving for diplomacy, Putin will probably bury his ears, even more deepening Russia's isolation from the west.
Donald Trump, Washington, April 2025.
Putin's ambitions are disappearing
Trump's crisis shows how fragile Putin's position is. The idea that the Russian leader can use cozy relations with the US president for economic and geopolitical benefits turned out to be naive mistake.
With falling oil prices, intact sanctions and growing global pressure, Putin's ambitions regarding reintegration with the international community disappear quickly. What once seemed to be an opportunity for Russia to get out of insulation became another painful reminder of the Kremlin's failures.
Despite the rhetoric of the reset between Washington and Moscow, reality turned out to be much different. The shaky position of Trump towards Russia, combined with two -party opposition in the USA to any form of sanction of sanctions, meant that Putin's economic ambitions were in ruins.
Trump revealed the crisis Putin's ability to manipulate global markets and politics. What was once perceived as a potential alliance now turns into an economic curse for Russia. The pain currently experiences Moscow, driven by falling oil prices and the consequences of Trump's duties, emphasizes the reality that Putin's refusal to negotiate in good faith left him in isolation.
Bypass
A chance to alleviate the sanctions, once the foundation stone of Putin's strategy, now disappears quickly. The American economy is experiencing an energy boom, and Trump is more and more focused on survival in internal policy, so in Washington there is no appetite for any movements towards the abolition of sanctions.
Russian companies, already struggling with sanctions and burdened with trillions of denominated debts in rubles, hoped for a quick return to international capital markets and re -entering the Swift payment system. Now, however, this seems to be an increasingly distant dream.
The irony of Trump's administration, inadvertently plunging the Russian economy by pure incompetence, can be the most appropriate punch line of his absurd trading war.
In the end, Trump did everything in his power to exclude both Russia and her vassal Belarus from the long list of countries covered by the duties. However, Russia's excessive dependence on oil and gas exports meant that it became a by -victim of a wider rainfall.
Ultimately, Putin's economic ambitions can be crushed. Not through sanctions, but through Trump's chaotic errors.
