The war between Israel and Iran is more than a lifebuoy for Putin. He got a chance to finish what he started
At a time when Russia is struggling with economic fatigue, exhaustion on the battlefield and a long war, which it cannot ultimately win, Events in the Persian Gulf can be not only a temporary opportunity for Putin, but also a lifebuoy.
At the beginning of June, there were reports that over 20,000 American shells originally intended for Ukraine were redirected to the American troops in the Middle East. It was more than just a logistic move – It meant a deep strategic changewhich has already progressed in Washington: from an attempt to stop Russian expansion in Europe to confrontation with the aggression sponsored by Iran in the Middle East.
The last decisions of the Trump administration emphasized this change. The proposal to apply 500 % duties to third countries with Russia was suddenly put on a shelf, while the introduction of new sanctions against Iran was accelerated.
For Trump it is a transactional calculation. He believes that Vladimir Putin has an impact on Tehran and can play a key role in releasing the crisis. In this new calculation, the Kremlin is no longer treated as an aggressor, but as a potential partner in the Persian bay.
The consequences of this change are already felt. Peace negotiations between Kiev and Moscow, once informally led by a member of the Trump team, Steve Witkoff, got stalled. Witkoff has now been transferred by Trump to the position of a special US envoy to the Middle East, effectively abandoning the matter of Ukraine.
Meanwhile, prominent voices in administration, such as the Secretary of State Marco Rubio, began to present the global role of America in a narrower context. Rubio recently stated that the United States “can no longer solve the problems of the world.”
At a time when peace negotiations remain formally in progress, Putin used his platform during the International Economic Forum in St. Petersburg to intensify his imperial narratives – claiming that all of Ukraine is in his opinion “historically Russian land”. Almost at the same time, the Kremlin intensified air attacks. Ukrainian officials informed about the unprecedented increase in the number of drones and rockets attacks, as a result of which up to 500 missiles were fired during one night.
Washington's reaction? Silence. Trump's team, absorbed in the prospect of sending troops to the Persian Gulf, seems reluctant – or unable – to reaction.
Fear of the energy crisis
Since the Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear objects, the European Union has suspended discussions on the reduction of the Russian oil price limit, fearing the potential energy crisis. These fears are not unfounded, because after Israeli attacks the price of Brent oil briefly exceeded $ 80. (PLN 293) for a barrel. Currently, when Iran is threatened with the closing of the Strait of the Ormuz – a strategic point for almost 20 percent. global oil supply – banks such as JP Morgan warn that prices can increase above $ 130. (PLN 476) for a barrel if this threat is realized.
Potential profits for Moscow do not end with energy – this is just one of the elements of the puzzle. The Russian defense sector, already well established, has long been installing Iranian Drona Szahid in the country, isolating Moscow from potential disturbances of the supply chain in the Persian Gulf.
What's more, if Iran, cut off from most Western weapon systems and desperately in need of supplementing stocks for combat activities, will ask Moscow to buy drones, ballistic rockets and air defense systems, the situation may change further. In the case of the escalation of war in the Persian Gulf, Russian war economy, currently strained, can be flooded with demand and cash.
Military consequences
Over the past four years, Ukraine has been in the United States not only in the field of advanced weapons, but also to coordinate activities on the battlefield.
American satellites followed the movements of Russian troops. Pentagon analysts helped in developing offensive strategies. Exchange of high -level intelligence intelligence She gave Kiev a decisive advantage in predicting and disturbing Russian operations.
Rescuers work on the site of a Russian rocket attack on a residential building in Kiev, Ukraine, on June 23, 2025, nine people were killed in a night attack, and 25 were injured
This advantage is now clearly weakening. The Pentagon began reviewing and delaying new help packages for Ukraine, citing “global security requirements” and “emerging threats in other conflict areas”. American Congressmen are increasingly busy escalating the conflict in the Middle East, are aware of the “limited possibilities” of simultaneously supporting two large -scale conflicts.
Meanwhile, Israel receives accelerated supplies of interception shells to an iron dome anti -aircraft systems, precise bunkers destroying bunkers and satellite data on goals – help that once defined the partnership between the US and Ukraine.
The consequences are already visible on the battlefield. Ukrainian commanders report more and more delays in the supply of key artillery shells and spare parts to the systems provided by the West.
Ukrainian air defense is difficult to deal with the growing number of Russian attacks on critical infrastructure, residential areas and enterprises.
This undoubtedly affects Ukraine's ability to defend and stop Russia's imperialist ambitions that are aimed at taking over a significant part of Eastern Europe.
Last thread of resistance
The war cannot be stopped. While the United States is considering sending their own armed forces to the Middle East to counteract Iran and support Israel, a break in the conflict in Ukraine is already filled – indifference, delays and inaction.
He knows that American voters are tired, European leaders are divided, and the attention of the public is fleeting.
A full -size conflict between Israel and Iran would not only divert the media's attention. He could weaken the focus of the world in the war in Ukraine, but also to break the last thread of the resistance of the Western coalition towards Russia. Putin can gain something much larger than a lifebuoy for himself and Russia – he can gain a second breath for his imperialist war, a second chance to finish what he started.
