The war at the crossroads. Which brings the new Ukrainian offensive in front of Russia. General: “I am afraid to say what can follow”

Ukraine's unexpected attack on Russian strategic bombers is an image shot and affects Russia's military capacity. Two important generals explain, in an analysis for the “truth”, beyond the Russian and Ukrainian propaganda, if and how much the fate of the war can change this ingenious attack.

There is a risk of escalation of the Ukraine war. Photo: Capture Video Reuters

Ukrainian FPV drones attacked several military aerodromes on the territory of Russia, where there were strategic aviation bases capable of transporting nuclear weapons. The operation, called “spider's cloth”, was thought of by the Ukrainian intelligence services, and for more than a year and a half. The results would be absolutely spectacular: the Ukrainians claim that they have destroyed more than 40 Russian strategic bombers, which would seriously affect the strength of Russia, especially in the case of a hypothetical war with NATO.

The turning point of the war?

But if the Ukrainians try to maximize everything, on the other hand, the Russians try to minimize the damage and importance of the opponent's action. Basically, two propaganda devices, the descendants of the famous Soviet KGB – the Russian and the Ukrainian are collided.

The “truth” tried to find an answer to the question to what extent this blow could change the fate of the war and make Ukrainians win, beyond the intense propaganda of the two camps, and for this he resorted to the expertise of two well-known Romanian generals.

General Dan Grecu, the head of the Romanian generals in retreat, decorated in the past by both the US and NATO, and General Alexandru Grumaz, the first high Romanian officer with studies at Harvard, tried to offer a relevant response, beyond the Russian or Ukrainian propaganda, both of the information war.

A bigger blow like the sinking of the Moskva cruiser

General Alexandru Grumaz believes that Russia has received a heavy blow. In his opinion, the operation “Spider cloth” has even more important effects than the sinking of the Crucier Moskva, respectively Ukrainian offender from Kursk, last year.

“This operation will remain in the history books and will be studied in the military academies everywhere. Because the operation was carried out by the Ukrainians on the territory of Russia, where those drone trucks were assembled. The entire operation was run and executed from the territory of Russia. strategic ones. Aerial attack and surveillance, all extremely important.“Says General Grumaz.

The military analyst believes that at least as important is the fact that the Ukrainians have shown that they can fight and hit the extremities of Russia and the military bases that seemed unattainable.

“This operation marks an extension of the conflict to thousands of kilometers from the battle area, raising question marks regarding the vulnerability of the Russian military infrastructure on its territory and the possibility of new counterattacks from Moscow. The strategic impact of these blows is felt not only at the military, but also diplomatic level, influencing the negotiations and the international perception of Ukraine, Spiderweb or spider's canvas operation is one for history textbooks and we will find out many things in the coming days, but what I would add is that, unlike many of the information, the whole operation was led by Vasyl Maliuk (no – head of the Security Service of Ukraine), not by Budanov”Says General Grumaz.

Puts the Russians in a bad light

In turn, General Dan Grecu emphasizes that the blow on the Russian bases can be compared to the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor. And the risks are tailor -made. The good news for the NATO states would be that through this blow, Russia's forces have a lot to suffer, and now it is even more obvious that they would not have a war against the Alliance.

“If the information published in the media is correct, because we have here only the information coming from the Ukrainian, this blow means a huge loss for the Russian Federation. Especially since this type of strategic bombers are no longer manufactured. It also affected the strategic capacity of nuclear blows of the Russian Federation ”, says General Grecu.

He also recalls that the information is largely contradictory, and some have not been confirmed from sources independent of the Ukrainian and Russian.

“I say again, subject to confirmation through different channels, not only what we know today, because you have seen, there are sources that speak of 30, 40 or even more than 40 and airplanes. Some evaluate Russia's losses at about $ 7 billion, other sources, including Western, talk about 2 billion. Special, because in the end it was special operations”Says General Grecu.

Nothing new on the sunrise front

The devastating attack on the Russian bases announces a change and climbing. General Dan Grecu expects the Russians to go to wild reprisals now. However, regardless of the success of the hit given by the Ukrainians, General Dan Grecu points out that the Russians should not be underestimated, and any objective analysis must start from the fact that they continue to occupy about 20% of the territory of Ukraine and constantly advances.

“I do not think that this attack, otherwise a great success of the Ukrainians, will change the fate of the war. On the contrary, I am really afraid not to follow an even ferocious response of the Russians who are very vindictive in such situations. In fact, I have seen that in the last 10-12 days I attended the biggest attacks. If we talk about Saturday and Sunday attacks. How's Oreșnik”, Says General Grecu.

Russia's revenge, between the dreaded Oreșnik and nuclear weapons

General Alexandru Grumaz also speaks of a revenge of Russia, who reminds that the Russians have so far launched Oreșnik rocket, which has caused huge destruction.

“We can expect the Russians to hit now with their intermediate-range ballistic rocket, Oreșnik. It is pre-pressed that the rocket has a speed greater than 11 machine, so 11 times the speed of sound. It is a rocket that can be used in the war, especially now. But I do not know how much the Russians have. But the Russians have changed including the iskander rockets, which are now with the avoidance of radar, interception stations. Russian ballistic ”says General Grumaz.

In addition, the Russians are constantly launching drone rains above Ukraine, and they exhaust the anti -aircraft defense. This makes the massive attacks of the Russians often overwhelm the Ukrainian defense.

“The sky of Ukraine is saturated with unanswered systems. It is very difficult to give dozens of drones down after an attack, and some of them will reach their target. Plus it is clear that saturating this air space leads to a high ammunition consumption from the Ukrainians and finally causes the defense failure, so many drones will not reach. connection ”, General Grumaz warns.

On the other hand, the success of the Ukrainians cannot be deleted with the sponge, no matter how great the Russians' reprisals. But the blow that led to the destruction of so many Russian aircraft although it is important, is not decisive and will not change the fate of the war, by itself.

“Dom'le, it is an extremely important blow, I said, it will remain in history books and will be taught in military universities. But that does not change the war and does not change the course. Instead, it can bring new elements to the Russian-Ukrainian negotiations, which would already be another success for the Ukrainians. It leads to a climbing of the war, here is the biggest problem.is the warning of General Alexandru Grumaz.