The authorities consider an increase in the dollar exchange rate to 100 rubles as an acceptable scenario for the economy, the Reuters agency source in the Russian government informed. According to him, there is a wide interest in the weakening of the ruble – provided that the drop in exchange rate will be smooth and stops at the desired level.
An even weaker ruble-around 110-120 for $ 1 – It is needed to help the budget that is hit by falling oil pricesbut the government and the central bank are afraid of the inevitable acceleration of inflation, emphasized the source of Reuters. According to the source, officials are also afraid that the devaluation process may escape from control.
From the beginning of the year, Rubel strengthened by 40 percent. And it became the fastest growing currency in the world, according to Bloomberg. The dollar exchange rate dropped to 80 rubles from over 110 rubles at the beginning of the year and remains by 15 percent. lower than assumed in the budget.
The price of Russian Urals also dropped – from $ 70. in January up to $ 50 in May. As a result, the federal budget lost almost one -fifth of oil and gas taxes in February and March and about 10 percent. In total during January-April. And in May, according to Reuters calculations, a decline reached 33 percent.
In response, the government hurriedly rewound its budget forecasts: instead of $ 70. For the barrel of the Urals, he now expects the average price for a year to be $ 56. As a result, according to the calculations of the Ministry of Finance, revenues from raw materials will be 25 percent. lower than the plan, and the budget deficit will be the highest than the pandemic time.
The government is getting harder to patch the budget hole at the expense of reserves. The National Welfare Fund, which for years was saved at the expense of the surplus of the raw material budget, has lost two -thirds of its liquid assets since the beginning of the war: $ 76 billion. from $ 115 billion, which the Ministry of Finance spent on injections for state corporations, financing megaprojekt and coverage of the budget deficit. In April 2025, NWF had only about $ 40 billion. free funds in the form of yuan and gold – minimum since the creation of the fund in 2008.
