Dr. Maciej Onasz draws attention to a small difference of the result of the first two candidates. According to Exit Poll and Late Poll, it is only about 2 percentage points. – In all studies, even those carried out directly in the last week, this distance was to be much clearer. Some showed up to 8 percentage points, and here we have a de facto draw with an indication. This can be read as the success of the weaker of these candidates that he has already managed to almost catch up with the leader – explains the political scientist of the University of Lodz.
The results of the first round put Karol Nawrocki in a favorable situation before extra time. – They put Nawrocki in a better situation when it comes to searching for an additional electorate. Rafał Trzaskowski is no longer a clear favorite, the situation has compensated – he says.
See also: Mentzen and Zandberg will put them against the wall. The election results are a fire in PO and PiS [OPINIA]
The studio case will come back
The political scientist indicates that although for now there was no survey effect of the studio of Knights of Karol Nawrocki, it will resonate in the second round. In turn, Rafał Trzaskowski started playing for the confederation electorate. However, the point is not to take over.
– Rafał Trzaskowski has made many nods towards the radical right since January, so as not to upset Mentzen voters. The game of Trzaskowski's staff is to demobilize these voters, because they are naturally inclined to Nawrocki. In turn, the so -called Studio apartments may make it difficult for the candidate supported by PiS to acquire new voters before the second round – says Dr. Maciej Onasz.
Braun triumphs, the end of the tribute?
In his opinion, Grzegorz Braun's high result is also a surprise. – With no special parliamentary facilities, he probably managed to beat the candidates with significant support, including two marshals. This is a great success and a alarm bell for the entire political class, taking into account what views Braun preach – he admits.
In turn, Szymon Hołownia, who according to the survey reached about 5 percent, according to dr. Onasa, he experiences a political catastrophe. – Confirmation of this result would be a defeat for him. Given that he ends his adventure with being a marshal, it is probably the end of this political career, at least at this stage – he pointed out.
The situation is varied on the left. – Adrian Zandberg can be satisfied with the result because he exceeded the psychological barrier of 5 percent. And he got a better result than Magdalena Biejat. This can allow the Party Together to give cards to the left. For the new left, it is a defeat – a result below 5 percent. The first place in the peloton is far from expectations. This can strengthen the tendency to absorb by the Civic Platform and the end of independent political existence – he assessed.
According to the expert, the concept of the third road may not persist if Hołownia confirms the poor result. – The third way as a political concept is unlikely to persist. There will be a search for something new – he forecasts.
– Poland 2050 is practically on the highway to be absorbed by the Civic Platform. The new left follows at least an expressway in the same direction. We have already seen it in local government elections, where the candidates competed from the Platform's lists. The left cannot be sure of independent existence, even parliamentary – he assesses.
PO and PiS come out battered
Dr Maciej Onasz draws attention to one more important change:-Duopol of the Platform and PiS never won so few votes after the first round-about 60 percent. This shows that a lot is happening behind them. Political plankton is no longer plankton – it is 40 percent. the electorate, which will fight for the second round. However, this is not a time to talk about the end of Duopol. He, although weakened, still holds up tightly – summed up the scientist.
