According to reports, Donald Trump’s recent actions are facilitating Vladimir Putin’s gradual reintegration into international politics. Over the past week, Putin engaged in phone conversations with the leaders of Finland and Norway, met with the Emir of Qatar and the President of Iran, and hosted African leaders in Moscow.
The New York Times highlighted that this diplomatic activity coincides with a warming of relations between Moscow and Washington. Trump’s administration is considering easing sanctions on the Russian Direct Investment Fund, led by Kremlin envoy Kirill Dmitriev. The previous U.S. administration, under President Joe Biden, labeled this fund a “dark fund” for Putin’s operations. Additionally, Trump has approved the import of Russian diesel fuel, with U.S. representative Steve Wietkoff publicly labeling Putin a “humanitarian.”
Such signals from the U.S. appear to provide the Kremlin with grounds to expect a continued reduction in its international isolation.
Stefan Meister, an analyst from the German Council on Foreign Relations, commented that “there is indeed celebration in the Kremlin right now.” He noted that Moscow is receiving more than it expected, irrespective of its willingness to make concessions to the West.
Future potential venues for Putin’s reentry into major diplomacy may include international summits in China and the U.S. In November, the illegitimate Russian president might visit Shenzhen for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum, where a meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Trump is not ruled out. This would position Russia alongside two leading global powers diplomatically. Furthermore, Putin may attend the G20 summit in Miami in December, an invitation he received from the U.S., despite dissatisfaction from some American allies.
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s international standing is becoming increasingly precarious. Relations between Kyiv and Washington are deteriorating, with American support becoming less predictable. Trump has publicly urged Ukrainians to replace President Volodymyr Zelensky, describing him as an obstacle to peace. Ukrainian forces are also facing restricted access to military-grade Starlink satellite communication, and supplies of American air defense systems are dwindling.
Putin seems to believe he can wait for the moment when Western allies lose their long-term commitment to supporting Kyiv. Changes in Washington’s policy, potential new agreements with Moscow, and internal political issues in European countries may strengthen his conviction that his strategy of waiting is justified. Meister indicated that Putin likely feels vindicated and believes he only needed to bide his time. Ultimately, he may gain more from Trump than he ever anticipated, according to the analyst.
This context raises questions for Europe about whether to renew direct dialogue with the Kremlin and who should represent European interests in such negotiations. Notably, Putin’s recent phone conversation with Finnish President Alexander Stubb and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre was presented by the Russian leader as evidence of some European politicians’ readiness for constructive dialogue. However, as NYT pointed out, this call sparked internal disputes within Europe, gaining support from only some members.
Simultaneously, the Kremlin is attempting to exploit Europe’s economic and political challenges to weaken its unity regarding Ukraine. Putin accuses European governments of excessive debt accumulation and rising costs for citizens due to their rejection of Russian gas, while neglecting domestic social issues in favor of assisting Kyiv. Analysts believe these statements are part of a broader Moscow strategy aimed at exacerbating internal divisions in Europe and convincing its citizens that supporting Ukraine contradicts their own interests.
On October 29, Le Monde reported that Trump’s actions are merely encouraging Putin to escalate the war in Ukraine.
