Poland is projected to experience a gas price increase of up to 35% by 2027, driven by significant price surges in European markets. Reports indicate that the government may intervene to shield households from these hikes. According to “Rzeczpospolita,” the Ministry of Energy is considering reintroducing price-freezing mechanisms previously used during past energy crises.
The European gas market is currently under strain, with prices on the Dutch TTF exchange exceeding €100 per MWh, marking the highest levels since late 2022. Contributing factors include geopolitical tensions, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, and lower gas reserves ahead of winter.
New Rates Expected in December
According to “Rzeczpospolita,” this situation could lead to increased energy bills for Polish households. The current gas tariff stands at 197 PLN/MWh, set to remain until the end of 2026, with new rates expected to be approved by the Energy Regulatory Authority (URE) in December.
Michał Kozak, an analyst at DM Trigon, estimates that the cost of gas procurement for 2027 could necessitate a tariff hike of approximately 35%.
The newspaper also reports that the Ministry of Energy is preparing measures to mitigate the impact of this rate increase. The government may consider established strategies from 2022 to 2024, which included price freezes and compensation for gas suppliers.
— We aim to utilize well-known and effective mechanisms from the years 2022-2024. This involves price freezing and compensations for suppliers to cover the gap between the regulated price and the URE tariff. We are also exploring funding sources, a source from the Energy Ministry told “Rz.”
One potential funding source is the Price Difference Compensation Fund, which reportedly could hold over 2 billion PLN. However, this may fall short, as the total cost of compensations for households is estimated at 3-4 billion PLN annually.
Businesses Anticipate Challenges
The issue extends to businesses, particularly in the chemical sector, where rising prices are heavily felt. At Grupa Azoty, gas accounts for 60-70% of overall costs in the nitrogen fertilizer segment.
— In the third quarter of 2026, average TTF gas prices increased by about 40% compared to the second quarter and approximately 100% compared to the same period last year, commented Grzegorz Kulik, spokesperson for Grupa Azoty.
