As of August 5, Ukrainian intelligence indicates that the Russian military has approximately 130 units of the 9M723 ballistic missiles designated for the Iskander-M system. Reports also suggest that Russia possesses about 400 RM-48U missiles intended for S-400 systems and up to 100 Kh-101 missiles.
In July, the Russian army reportedly had around 50 Kinzhal hypersonic missiles along with a similar number of North Korean ballistic missiles, specifically KN-23, KN-24, and KN-30. Ukrainian intelligence previously noted that production of Kinzhal missiles was halted in April to allow for increased manufacturing of other missile types, with the Kinzhal undergoing revisions due to accuracy issues.
The emphasis of the Russian defense industry is shifting towards mass missile systems, prioritizing the production of Iskander-M missiles, Kh-101 missiles, and Kalibr missiles. The assessments indicate that Russia has maintained high production rates, occasionally exceeding planned outputs.
Ukrainian intelligence estimates that the production target for Iskander-M missiles is set at 60 units per month, with reports confirming that 65 were manufactured in July alone. Additionally, 87 Kh-101 cruise missiles were produced during that month.
Production rates for RM-48U missiles for the S-400 system are approximated at 50 units monthly, with a target of over 480 units for the entire year of 2026, double the expectations set for 2025.
Overall, Ukrainian intelligence asserts that Russia can generate upwards of 200 cruise and ballistic missiles each month.
Context
- The escalation of Russian ballistic attacks coincides with Ukraine facing a severe shortage of interceptors for its Patriot systems, with allies hesitant to provide more support.
- During a meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump in late July, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky requested 300 additional Patriot missiles for Ukraine, but the request was denied.
- According to The Washington Post on August 5, the Trump administration had urged European nations earlier this year to share their Patriot missiles with Ukraine, but several were unwilling to do so. Politico reported on August 10 that many European allies indicated they had limited stocks available for sharing. On August 13, Poland’s Ministry of Defense stated that a decision on transferring the next batch of anti-ballistic missiles to Ukraine would be made shortly, though as of August 20, no updates were available.
