U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is set to engage in a sensitive diplomatic mission this week, as he presents Washington’s peace agreement with Iran to Gulf Arab leaders. These leaders are apprehensive that excessive concessions could strengthen Tehran and disrupt regional security and oil supply routes, according to reports from Reuters.
Rubio will meet with leaders in the United Arab Emirates on Tuesday, before heading to Kuwait and Bahrain for discussions with officials from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), which includes Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Oman.
The discussions will focus on elements of a proposed agreement that lacks limitations on Iran’s ballistic missile program, includes a $300 billion reconstruction fund, and contains provisions that may expand Tehran’s regional influence and control over critical oil transport routes.
All six GCC member states are strategic U.S. allies, having provided logistical support during the U.S.-Israeli conflict against Iran, which began four months ago, and they have all been affected by Iranian airstrikes resulting from this conflict.
Privately, some of these countries express surprise and disappointment at an interim agreement that may pave the way for normalization between the U.S. and Iran, a Shiite-majority nation perceived as a primary adversary by the predominantly Sunni states of the GCC.
Importance of Gulf States to U.S. Interests
Reuters highlights that the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain host U.S. military bases that form the backbone of America’s security architecture in the Middle East. Any reconsideration of security relations by these nations, even subtly, could significantly impact U.S. military strategy in the region.
For Rubio, this visit requires a delicate balancing act in diplomacy.
While the American diplomat must reassure regional allies, he must do so without appearing to criticize the memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran. President Donald Trump, who signed the agreement last week, staunchly supports it despite criticism from some Republican colleagues in Congress who accuse the administration of capitulating to Tehran.
Andrew Peek, former deputy assistant secretary of state for Iraq and Iran and a member of Trump’s National Security Council during both terms, suggested that Rubio could reassure concerned allies by reminding them of Trump’s history of tough policies against the Islamic Republic.
“I think he can simply remind them that the president has taken extremely firm stances against Iran and that, if this memorandum fails, he will not hesitate to return to military strikes against them,” Peek stated, now working with the Atlantic Council think tank.
Peace with Iran at What Cost?
Leaders of all GCC nations hosting Rubio or participating in this week’s discussions have publicly supported a diplomatic solution before the war began in February. Most have also advocated for a diplomatic exit from the conflict, even as they facilitated U.S. war efforts in practice.
However, regional officials have expressed shock over the specific terms of the memorandum of understanding, according to analysts and diplomats.
One major concern centers around ballistic missiles. Throughout the war, the Trump administration has asserted that destroying Iran’s capacity to launch ballistic missiles is a central objective. This goal aligns with the interests of Sunni Gulf states, all within the range of Iranian ballistic missiles and subject to such attacks.
Yet, the memorandum does not address Iran’s missiles at all, and even Trump stated recently that it would be “unfair” to deny Tehran such weapons.
The document also proposes a $300 billion reconstruction fund for Tehran, raising fears among its regional neighbors that it could bolster the Islamic Republic’s military capabilities while enhancing support for allied groups that could destabilize regimes throughout the Middle East.
In particular, Bahrain’s predominantly Sunni leadership is especially concerned that a well-financed Iran could incite unrest among the country’s majority Shiite population, according to analysts. During the Arab Spring, Bahrain, with approximately 1.65 million residents, witnessed massive and repeated street protests.
Iran has denied attempting to secretly incite unrest but has previously expressed public support for Shiite activists in Bahrain.
Will the U.S. Allow Iran Control Over the Strait of Hormuz?
The current agreement also seems to accept the notion that Iran may play a significant future role in controlling the Strait of Hormuz, a major concern for Kuwait, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, all of which rely on this strait for their oil and gas exports.
More broadly, U.S. officials have begun discussing a general reset of relations with Tehran, a potential transformation that most GCC states view with skepticism. On Saturday, Vice President JD Vance stated that the U.S. is willing to “fundamentally transform” its relationship with Tehran.
“The agreement rehabilitates the Tehran regime as a regional power,” wrote Abdulrahman Al-Rashed, a veteran journalist and political commentator, in the Saudi English-language daily Arab News last week.
“Most of the funds that Tehran will receive in the coming weeks will likely be directed primarily towards strengthening its military position, not improving living standards or supporting the Iranian economy,” he emphasized.
