Subber forecast of JP Morgan, the largest American investment bank: Lion will continue to depreciate against the euro, against the background of political turbulence
Euro-le-Bani, photo: Dreamstime
JPMORGAN, the largest American investment bank on Wall Street, said on Tuesday that they are relying on the euro compared to the Romanian lion on Spot forex markets, in the context in which the country's intervention policy seems to change after the first round of Sunday's presidential elections, writes Reuters.
The American bank states that the evolution of the Lion after the victory of George Simion, the leader of the extreme-right and Eurosceptic opposition, in the first round of the Romanian presidential elections, which took place on Sunday, increased the chances of the national currency.
In a recent note, the bank sketched scenarios that include a devaluation of 3-5% and one of 15-20%.
“I argue for a probability of 50/50 between the two devaluation scenarios, but the evolutions on the field will count enormously,” said Anezka Christovova, from JPMorgan, in a note addressed to investors.
However, Christovova said that a different result of the second round of presidential elections or a change in Simion's rhetoric would change these probabilities.
“We … we rely on a long position on Eurron (on the market) Spot (assuming a daily run of financing) that initially concerns a total movement of 5% compared to the levels prior to the intervention,” said Anezka Christovova.
The lion depreciated at 5.0950 compared to the euro today, around noon, from 4.9750 in the morning, against the background of political turbulence after the first round of the presidential elections, a report on Tuesday of BCR, assumed by the macroeconomist Eugen Sinca.
BCR Report: “5.10 lei/euro is the new demarcation line for the BNR. Leo has been depreciated against the background of political turbulence”
“The lion sinks after the elections”, the Romanian currency depreciated by over 2% and exceeded the key level of 5 lei for one euro, wrote Bloomberg, noting that this sudden evolution comes in the context in which Romanian Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu resigned after the first round of the presidential elections was won by George.
Euro-le-Bani, photo: Dreamstime
