Romania entered 2026 with the brakes on. Wages have fallen, industry has retreated, and the IT sector—which functioned as the economy's safety net—is reeling under the pressure of artificial intelligence. Claudiu Cazacu, XTB Romania strategy consultant, puts the numbers on the table: -1.5% in the first quarter and a recession that is becoming a basic scenario.
In an opinion material sent to HotNews, Claudiu Cazacu sends 3 messages:
Romania and Ireland – the only countries that had an annualized decrease in the EU
The economy shrank 1.5% in Q1, real wages fell 5%, industry retreated 2.4%. We are among the few EU countries that have contracted. “Romania and Ireland are the only countries that recorded an annualized decrease in the European Union,” says Cazau. The official estimates (EC: +1.1%, BM: +0.5%) are considered by him to be too optimistic – the author's basic scenario is a limited recession.
The IT sector, the traditional savior, is also in danger
IT, which accounts for 45% of service exports, is under pressure from AI and layoffs in the global software industry. The growth rate could decrease by 8.5 times compared to 3 years ago. “Digital exports represent almost 45% of the total exports of services, but the pace of the industry's advance could drop to just 2%, eight and a half times lower than the pace of three years ago. According to ANIS, private investments in research and development are among the lowest in the EU, at only 0.3% of GDP. Changing the model towards innovation could bring up to 40 billion Euros more to the country's economy,” says Cazacu.
“In his view, IT – a big revenue generator and balancer of current account flows – has come under pressure at a time when companies are looking to achieve increased efficiency and profit through the use of AI. “At times, AI appears to have been used as a shield for previously planned staff cuts, but the effects are similar. The local industry absolutely needs to rediscover the operating model, explains Claudiu Cazacu. The entire software sector in the US is under pressure, and stock quotes have followed a diverging trend from CPU and GPU processors or memory manufacturers,” explains the Romanian consultant
The only real chance is reinvention through technology
The author is not an incurable pessimist, but admits that there is a window of opportunity through the massive adoption of AI and emerging technologies, especially in IT and agriculture. But this window is closing fast: delay is expensive.
There is a possibility of large-scale use of new technologies. Large-scale educational programs, on several axes: familiarization, integration in the activities of different sectors, development of new products, both in the digital and physical fields. The agricultural industry, in addition to the digital field, can benefit enormously from the optimizations, which will at the same time bring severe variations to the labor market.
The material base and teams of professionals remain particularly important, but an expansion of capabilities is needed. Competition is increasing and some employees will be forced to move into other roles, but the old knowledge set is not useless, it can be converted and enhanced. Change comes with potential, which, however, must be used quickly. Delaying or wasting it carries a high price.
Investments in innovation and new products for agent AI-type developments, but also other emerging technologies would “brighten” productivity prospects and the growth potential of the economy in the long term, adds Claudiu Cazacu, XTB Romania strategy consultant.
Agent AI are artificial intelligence systems that don't just answer questions, but act autonomously to accomplish complex objectives.
Difference from classic AI (basic ChatGPT type):
Concrete examples:
- An AI agent that you tell “research the market and write me a report” — searches the Internet, filters, summarizes and delivers the document itself, without guiding it step by step
- An agent that handles emails, schedules appointments and updates CRM without human intervention
- In agriculture: a system that monitors soil, orders irrigation, adjusts fertilizer doses and reports — automatically
Cazacu suggests that Romania should stop being just a consumer of AI technology, but develop such agency systems itself – products with high added value, which can generate exports and economic growth, not just deliver cheap labor in software outsourcing.
Agent AI is the next level after chatbots – and that's where investors' money is going
