What will Trump say? That's the biggest question before the two most powerful men in the world meet. Starting Wednesday, Donald Trump and Xi Jinping will talk and negotiate with each other in the Chinese capital for three days. Economic agreements are in focus. However, Beijing will not roll out the red carpet without placing a geopolitical trap at the end of it.
The Chinese goal is to get Trump to make statements about Taiwan that would bring the rebellious island to its knees. — It would be enough if he said: “I support peaceful unification” — and chaos around Taiwan would be guaranteed. This time, unlike Trump's visit to China in 2017, Xi has several tools at his disposal to drag the American president onto shaky ground. At least one of these temptations will be difficult for Trump to resist.
Four weak points of Trump
Starting point: China considers Taiwan and its capital, Taipei, as its territory and they regularly provoke the island with military exercises. Taipei is run by an independence-promoting government that treats the island as an independent state. Although the US does not recognize Taiwan as an independent state, it opposes China's military actions.
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That's why America has been supplying weapons to the island for decades. However, before Trump's visit, Prof. Wu Yongping of Tsinghua University in Beijing predicted in an interview with the South China Morning Post: “The US has little reason to allow the Taiwan issue to block its broader strategic interests.”
In other words: Trump would be willing to sacrifice Taiwan if the payoff is large enough. Xi knows this very well. Here are the tools he has to put pressure on Trump:
1
Rare earth metals. The US urgently needs these metals for its high-tech industry. China controls approximately 70 percent. world deposits of rare earth metals and process over 90 percent In response to US tariffs, Beijing briefly halted exports of these raw materials to the US in 2025, showing how dependent the US is on Chinese goodwill.
2
The Iran case. He started it himself, but he can't get out of it: Trump's war with Iran is causing absurdly high fuel prices in the US, and the president's ratings are falling. China has a tool in its hand that can force the Iranian ayatollahs to sign a peace treaty. Beijing buys approximately 90 percent. Iranian oil, provides Tehran with its alternative to GPS – BeiDou-3 – and blocks anti-Iran sanctions in the UN Security Council. What if Xi told Trump, “I will put the ayatollahs in check if you just say one sentence about Taiwan”?
3
Nancy Pelosi. The Democratic Party veteran is one of Trump's “favorite enemies.” As Speaker of the House of Representatives in 2022, she dared to fly to Taipei, which greatly irritated China. Xi just needs to deftly remind Trump how much Pelosi was against Beijing and on Taipei's side – and Trump may not resist the temptation to “undercut” his former rival in the diplomatic arena. After all, ego always plays a huge role in the decisions of an American president.
4
Soybeans and Boeing planes. The US economy urgently needs good news. The Chinese may propose to Trump to increase purchases of American soybeans and Boeing aircraft. This would help both American farmers and the airline industry recover from the crisis.
The future of artificial intelligence depends on this meeting
Xi will prepare a grand ceremony for the guest. He knows how much Trump needs “deals” that he can sell as political successes in his homeland. This, how much Trump is willing to help the hostas shown by the case of arms supplies to Taiwan.
View of Taipei, the capital of TaiwanAaronChenPS2 / Shutterstock
Already in February, the two leaders talked by phone about new supplies of American weapons to Taipei. Only in December did the US and Taiwan sign a new arms contract worth $11 billion. (approx. PLN 40 billion). The next one, worth PLN 14 billion (approx. PLN 50 billion), is already ready for signature. Beijing is strongly opposed to this. It looks like this topic will also be on the agenda during Trump's visit.
If Trump fell into this trap, it would be a shock to the entire world. For U.S. allies such as South Korea and Japan, the sense of insecurity would increase. The world economy would begin to falter. TSMC is located in Taiwan – the largest semiconductor manufacturer in the world, supplying, among others, most of the chips for tech giant Nvidia.
If American deterrence policy collapsed, Beijing could feel emboldened to pursue its dreams of unification by force. Production in Taiwan and TSMC, a key company in the era of artificial intelligence, would be in danger. Trump's words in the Far East now weigh even more than usual. We can only hope that this time the “great thunder” will also draw attention to more delicate nuances.
I’m Ashley Davis as an editor, I’m committed to upholding the highest standards of integrity and accuracy in every piece we publish. My work is driven by curiosity, a passion for truth, and a belief that journalism plays a crucial role in shaping public discourse. I strive to tell stories that not only inform but also inspire action and conversation.
