“The stable outlook strikes a balance between Poland's promising economic growth prospects over the next two years and the risk of increasing economic vulnerability related to a sharp increase in the country's public debt,” S&P reports.
S&P said it may downgrade Poland's rating if medium-term economic growth prospects deteriorate significantly, which may be accompanied by an intensification of macroeconomic imbalances or renewed external shocks, including unexpected or long-lasting effects of geopolitical conflicts.
“The rating could also be downgraded if the Russia-Ukraine war escalates, which would have a greater impact on Poland's public finances and economic growth and pose additional security risks,” the report said.
What could influence the rating increase? S&P indicates
The agency said that a rating increase was possible if the government took action to reduce the high budget deficit, which would contribute to the reduction of public debt.
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“Sustained progress in institutional and governance improvements, promoting prudent fiscal policies and maintaining the inflow of EU funds and foreign direct investment (FDI) could also have a positive impact on the rating,” the report said.
Among the three largest rating agencies, Poland's creditworthiness is assessed highest by Moody's – at the “A2” level. Poland's rating according to Fitch and S&P is “A-“, one level lower than Moody's.
The ministry's comment on the decision of the S&P agency
The Ministry of Finance emphasized that, according to the agency, the Polish economy continues to grow at a stable pace, supported by investments financed by the European Union and resilient domestic demand.
“The agency forecasts that GDP growth will amount to 3.3% in 2026 and 2.9% in 2027. Despite external risks, including geopolitical tensions and weaker demand in the euro zone, Poland maintains one of the highest GDP per capita growth rates among developed economies,” the ministry pointed out.
He added that the inflation risk remains elevated due to the possibility of an increase in global energy prices due to conflicts in the Middle East, which, if the situation worsens, could also negatively affect the economic growth rate.
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“At the same time, public finances remain under pressure – net public debt is expected to approach 70 percent of GDP by 2029, mainly as a result of high spending on defense and social purposes. The public finance sector deficit has increased significantly, reaching 7.3 percent of GDP in 2025, and according to forecasts it will remain high also in the next two years,” noted the Ministry of Finance.
The ministry also noted that Poland's resistance to external pressure is reflected in “a high savings rate, a diversified economy, a flexible labor and product market, an educated workforce and access to large external sources of financing that do not result in debt.”
“S&P also emphasizes that the polarized political scene and the upcoming parliamentary elections in 2027 may continue to hamper effective fiscal policy and institutional reforms,” the ministry said.
