Marco Rubio's popularity, rise among MAGAs. The US Secretary of State, considered a serious candidate for the 2028 elections
Some of US President Donald Trump's closest advisers increasingly see Secretary of State Marco Rubio as a possible serious contender for the 2028 presidential race — a recognition of the Florida politician's ability to simultaneously manage foreign conflicts and avoid political pitfalls, a Politico analysis shows.
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It's a surprising change of direction for a politician once considered far too belligerent, too establishment-aligned and too scarred by the failure of the 2016 presidential campaign to matter in a post-Trump Republican Party.
But his involvement in efforts to oust Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro and his unwavering loyalty to Trump have boosted his popularity in the West Wing, as well as among some MAGA voters,
Rubio has said he will not challenge Vance for the GOP nomination, and it remains to be seen whether his conversion to MAGA politics could win him majority support from Trump's base should he run.
For now, the growing number of admirers in the US president's inner circle suggest that Rubio's belated embrace of Trumpism could be a strength, in welcome contrast to some old-school Republican elites who have left the party or avoided Washington rather than come to terms with Trump.
“JD Vance is a fantastic Vice President and Marco Rubio is an excellent Secretary of State,” commented Trump adviser Alex Bruesewitz. “Rubio could have gone one of two ways after the 2016 campaign. He could have gone the John Kasich way and started suffering from Trump Distraction Syndrome and lost himself in the abyss,” he said, referring to the former Ohio governor who ran against Trump in 2016 and later endorsed Joe Biden in the 2020 race.
Instead, Rubio “chose the path of embracing MAGA and becoming one of MAGA's most ardent allies and supporters,” Trump's adviser pointed out.
The US secretary of state is “loyal, highly intelligent, articulate and very experienced” and “a winner,” a senior White House official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.
Trump has yet to show support for a potential successor, and his opinion could prove decisive.
Should Rubio run against Vance or anyone else, he would have to make a leap — from Cabinet member to candidate — that has proven daunting for several popular figures in both parties in recent years.
What internal surveys show
A CPAC poll last month showed that Rubio's approval rating has seen a huge jump — to 35 percent, up from 3 percent last year.
On the other hand, in the case of Vance, although he is still the favorite, there was a decrease – from 61% last year to 53%.
YouGov polls show a similar dynamic: In an April poll, Vance was leading the list of potential Republican candidates with 63 percent, while Rubio was at 42 percent. A September poll showed 65% support for Vance and 33% for Rubio.
The US secretary of state has not replaced Vance on Trump's shortlist: However, in discussions within the West Wing, Rubio is emerging as a viable option to succeed Trump, according to two senior White House officials and five other people close to the US administration.
Among them is a growing group of admirers Rubio has won at the highest levels of the Trump administration who have previously been reluctant to discuss the dynamics of the 2028 election until closer to the midterm elections — and the president's eventual endorsement.
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Most characterize Rubio as a seasoned politician, whose dual position as secretary of state and head of the National Security Council naturally places him at the center of crucial decisions, but also in close proximity to Trump.
“Because of this dual role, he had a lot of access and the possibility of face-to-face discussions with the president – and with MAGA. It was something that was extremely important to him.”said Sean Spicer, White House press secretary during Trump's first term.
The rise of Rubio
Secretary of State Marco Rubio is consolidating his position in the Trump administration and on the back of his active role in the new US policy in the Western Hemisphere.
Rubio has been heavily involved in anti-drug operations, including strikes on suspected drone traffickers, as well as operations in Venezuela and Cuba. Unlike the protracted conflict in Iran, these initiatives were perceived as faster and more decisive. According to senior officials, he also coordinated post-operational planning, bringing together agencies such as the Departments of Interior, Energy and, to a lesser extent, Commerce to craft an economic development plan for the region.
Domestically, Rubio has distinguished himself by taking a hard line on immigration. He revoked green cards for foreign nationals with ties to Iran and Palestinian officials, revoked thousands of student visas and introduced a “one-offense” policy that allows visas to be revoked for any violation of US law or support for terrorism.
Another advantage in his favor was the avoidance of scandals and controversial moments that could affect the president's image. Nor was he perceived to be at odds with Donald Trump, including on his handling of the Iran war.
Some Republican strategists believe Rubio's growing popularity could propel him to the front if he had Trump's support. Conservative influencers like Laura Loomer went even further, suggesting that Rubio could become president in the future.
However, not all MAGA supporters are convinced. In the past, Rubio has been criticized for his positions considered too favorable to US involvement in foreign conflicts and insufficiently aligned with the “America First” doctrine. Although he has adjusted his message since then, some reservations remain, and his political evolution may also depend on the outcome of the Iran war.
Critics within the party say that while Rubio embraces MAGA rhetoric, he remains closer to traditional Republicanism, focused on tax cuts and building up the military.
“Party decision-makers and donors think that's enough 'MAGA' to attract voters.” He talks MAGA-style but is more of an establishment Republican…cutting taxes, building up the military — old-school Republicanism,” pointed out Steve Cortes, a former adviser to Trump. “I don't think that works in a populist era. I don't think it's going to excite voters.”
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Others, however, see him as an effective communicator, able to present controversial actions in a way that is accessible and compelling to Trump's electorate.
“Manages very well to combine normality and common sense with a slight touch of Trump and the MAGA movement”a member of the Republican Party close to the White House sent in a text message. “He is able to convince those who might be angry. At the very least, he's the best at making things seem logical. He is effectively a very able spokesman for the president.“
Despite Rubio's advances, Vice President Vance remains a heavy favorite, leading in the polls and enjoying significant support both within the administration and from influential figures such as Donald Trump Jr. and Elon Musk.
Ultimately, the decision on whether to run is Rubio's, said a person who knows him closely. On the other hand, Donald Trump, the main influencer in the upcoming primaries, is unlikely to make a final decision before the midterm elections in November.
