The zloty is waiting for news from the Middle East. The risk of a correction is real

On Friday morning, the euro rate remained near six-week lows, awaiting good news from the Middle East. Analysts warn that in the absence of them, the zloty market will probably face a correction.

At 9:48 the euro exchange rate was PLN 4.2380 and was almost half a grosz lower than the day before. On Wednesday and Thursday, the EUR/PLN exchange rate reached its lowest values ​​on March 3, reacting to speculations related to the conclusion of a permanent peace agreement between the US and Iran. The second round of talks is supposed to start this weekend.

– If there is no information in the coming hours that shifts the assessment of the conflict in the Persian Gulf towards the positive scenarios discounted by the market, in our opinion the pressure on risky assets may increase – wrote PKO BP analysts in a morning report. In their opinion, such a scenario would mean an increase in the euro rate to approximately PLN 4.25 and an increase in the dollar rate to PLN 3.62.

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Meanwhile, the American currency tried without much success to make up for the losses it had suffered against the euro in recent days. The dollar has weakened since the announcement of a 14-day truce with Iran. Previously, the US currency was the main beneficiary of the war with Iran.

On Friday morning, the dollar cost less than PLN 3.60 on the Polish currency market. From the point of view of Poland's interests, the cheapest possible dollar is beneficial. If only for the reason that we pay for imported crude oil, natural gas and liquid fuels in USD. Therefore, the falling USD/PLN exchange rate allows Orlen to reduce domestic fuel prices (expressed in PLN) and removes some of the inflationary pressure from the Polish economy.

In this context, good news for the zloty were the March results of the so-called core inflation. It turned out that, at least in March, the fuel shock did not “spread over” the Polish economy, as prices of goods other than fuel, food or energy grew at a similar pace as in the previous few months.

However, the downward trend in the franc-zloty pair stopped. In the morning, the Helvetian currency was valued at PLN 4.5940, which was similar to the previous two days. However, the British pound continued to depreciate and was worth PLN 4.8667 on Friday morning. These are the lowest pound rates since March 3.

K.K

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