Article by Cezar Titor – Published on Thursday, 16 April 2026, 22:38 / Updated on Thursday, 16 April 2026 22:39
According to the calculations made by the OPTA supercomputer, the big surprise is that the favorite to win the hottest interclub competition in the world is Arsenal. The Gunners are credited with a 36.75% chance of lifting the trophy in the end.
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The OPTA supercomputer analyzes team data (form, results, goals, team value, etc.) and simulates the competition 10,000 times.
What are the four teams' chances of winning the trophy and reaching the finals:
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ARSENAL – 36.75% chance to win the trophy / 73.40% chance to reach the final
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BAYERN – 34.61% chance to win the trophy / 61.28% chance to reach the final
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PSG – 19.35% chance to win the trophy / 38.72% chance to reach the final
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Atletico – 9.29% chance to win the trophy / 26.60% chance to reach the final
The two legs of the PSG-Bayern semi-final will take place on April 28 and May 6 respectively, while Atletico Madrid and Arsenal will face each other on April 29 and May 5 respectively.
The final will take place in Budapest, on May 30, in the extravagant “Puskas Arena”, with 67,000 seats.
Puskas Arena will host the Champions League final // PHOTO: Imago Images
In the case of two of the teams, a possible triumph would represent a first: Arsenal and Atletico Madrid. The Londoners have lost a final in 2006, the “quilters” three, in 1974, 2014 and 2016.
PSG won last year's premier in Munich after a legendary 5-0 thrashing of Inter, while the Bavarians are the third most successful team in the competition, behind Real Madrid and Milan, with 6 Champions League trophies and 5 other finals lost.
And the data from “Football Meets Data” still make Arsenal the favorite to win the competitionwith 41.5% chances, the rest of the top being identical: Bayern Munich, with 32.1%, PSG with 20.4%, Atletico Madrid with 6.1%.
Football Meets Data – odds of winning the trophy in UCL
