How the Romanian appetite for vote has evolved in 35 years of democracy. In 2025 the largest number of sections in the diaspora

The biggest voting presence, at the presidential elections, registered in the first free elections, in 1990, when over 86% of Romanians with voting rights appeared at the ballot box. Almost 30 years later I had the weakest presence.

The vote abroad was organized, rounds in a row, mainly in photo embassies: Archive/ MAE

If the Romanians from the Diaspora, who present themselves in these hours at the ballot box, will dictate the trend, we will have a vote presence over last year, when the presence was increasing compared to 2019. To reach the figures of the first decade of democracy, however, it should be very high.

The appetite of Romanians for elections was, in 1990, at huge levels. On May 20, in the “Blind Sunday”, 86.19% of Romanians with voting rights arrived in the voting booths, being expressed over 14.8 million votes. There was no need to organize a second round, the candidate of the National Salvation Front, Ion Iliescu, winning the elections with 61.43% of the votes.

Two years later, when the Romanians were called again to choose their president, they presented themselves at the ballot box, in the first round, 76.29% of the voters (over 12.4 million), in the 2 round being three percent lower. The elections were also won by Ion Iliescu.

The presence was at the same level in 1996, when 13 million voters (76%) were presented in the first round, and in round 2-75.9%. Ion Iliescu was defeated, the elections being won by the candidate of the Democratic Convention in Romania (CDR), Emil Constantinescu.

In four years, the interest of Romanians for the presidential elections has decreased by about ten percent. In the first round of the elections in 2000, 11.5 million voters (65.31%) were presented, and in round 2, although the stake was considered huge, the first president of Romania after 1990, Ion Iliescu, together with the president of the Romania Great, Vadim Tudor, considered an extremist. 57.50% of Romanians arrived at the ballot box, Ion Iliescu winning the elections with 66.83% of the votes.

The interest continued to decrease in the following years, so that in the 2004 elections in round, there was a presence of 58.5%, respectively 55.2% in the 2 round. President became Traian Basescu (Democratic Party), defeating the PSD president – Adrian Năstase.

Four years later, in 2009, less than ten million voters came out – 54.37% in the tour1. In round 2, contrary to what happened in the previous elections, the presence was better – 58.02%. Traian Basescu won the second term, defeating Mircea Geoană (PSD).

In 2019, at the end of the first five-year term for a president, 53.17% of voters in the 1st round were presented at the presidential elections. Two weeks later, in round 2, the presence was more than ten percent higher, Klaus Iohannis defeating the PSD chief from that date.

The worst presence at the ballot box, in 2019

Almost 30 years after the Revolution, in the autumn of 2019, only 51.18% of Romanians were presented to exercise the right to choose. Klaus Iohannis entered round 2, who wanted a second term, and Viorica Dăncilă (PSD). 54.86% of the voters were presented, winning Iohannis.

At the elections canceled from last year, in the first round the presence was 52.55, in a very easy increase compared to 2019, the 2 round having no place, following the decision to cancel the elections.

For the presidential elections 2025 the voting process started on Friday, May 2, 2025, in the polling stations organized abroad, and the presence is far beyond what happened in last year's elections and even over the 2019 presence.

Most polling stations organized abroad and possibly the largest presence

The Romanians abroad could hardly choose the president, in the first rounds of elections having this possibility very few, in sections organized especially in the headquarters of embassies and consultations. In 2004, for example, only 41,000 voters voted abroad. In the 2009 elections the number of Romanians abroad interested in what is happening in the country increased six times in the polls – almost 242,000 voters. In 2009, the pressure of a reform of the voting system abroad has already appeared for the first time in the public space, the voting sections being available being far too few. In 2014 the number of votes expressed in the diaspora increased more than twice compared to 2009 – over 540,000 votes expressed in the diaspora.

For the 2019 elections, the legislation has changed, deciding that the voting process in the diaspora will take place over three days. It was also seen in figures, participating in the vote 1.6 million Romanians. However, the interest decreased for the elections of 2024, when almost 822,000 votes were expressed abroad, given that the number of polling stations has increased constantly.

In 2014, for Romanians from abroad, 294 polling stations were organized, in 2019 the number increased to 835, in 2024 950 sections were organized, and for these elections the number increased to 965 sections.

Until Saturday at noon, over 150,000 Romanians from abroad had voted for the president's election.

AI analysis: The massive presence of the Romanians in the diaspora has the potential to influence the electoral results

I finally analyzed the data regarding the presence of the Romanians, in the country and abroad, and with the help of an AI instrument.

“The electoral landscape in Romania shows a relative stabilization of the vote presence at national level in the last electoral cycle (2024 vs 2019), but at a general lower level compared to 10-15 years, ” It is shown in the analysis carried out by Rainman, a tool created by Digital Nation, an organization that is based on the development of advanced technologies with applicability in different fields.

According to her, the massive voting presence of the Romanians in the Diaspora “It has become extremely relevant from a numerical point of view, partially compensating for the decrease in the number of voters in the country and having the potential to influence the electoral results.”

As for the presence at the vote at national level, there are counties in which the presence remained constantly above the national average in the last four cycles of elections: Ilfov, Giurgiu, Olt, Sibiu. At the opposite pole, the counties with constant presence below the national average are: Bacău, Botosani, Covasna, Galați, Harghita, Ialomița, Iași, Maramureș, Neamț, Satu Mare, Suceava, Tulcea, Vaslui.

The biggest decreases in the vote presence between 2009-2024 were registered in: Teleorman (-13.61 pp), Dâmbovița (-10.92 pp), Vâlcea (-10.17 pp), Gorj (-8.69 pp), Mehedinți (-7.95 pp), while Cluj County is noted as the county: pp.

The regional disappearances in participating in the vote persists and even accentuated in some cases, the analysis shows, noting the long-term decline in the southern counties that had a very high presence).

“A more in-depth analysis of the causes underlying these trends and abnormalities is required, including demographic factors (internal/external migration, age structure), socio-economic (income, education, regional development), the level of trust in the political class and institutions, as well as the efficiency of the mobilization campaigns in different regions and for different segments. Understanding these factors is crucial for forecasting future tendencies and for possible strategies for encouraging civic participation ”, recommend Rainman.

Identified trends

1.

2.. The explosive increase in the vote in the diaspora: the number of voters from abroad has increased more than 8 times between 2009 and 2024, becoming an increasingly important factor.

3. Maintaining regional disappearances: counties such as Ilfov, Giurgiu, Olt stay constantly in the top of the presence, while counties in Moldova (Vaslui, Botosani, Iași) and northwest (Maramureș, Satu Mare), along with Covasna and Harghita, constantly records presence below the national media.

4. Significant decline in certain counties in the south: counties that in 2009 had among the largest presence (Teleorman, Giurgiu, Olt, Dâmbovița, Mehedinti) registered considerable decreases during the 15 years.

Observed anomalies

1. The magnitude of the increase of the vote from abroad: the rhythm and extent of the increase of the vote of the diaspora are exceptional compared to the evolution of the internal vote.

2. The decline emphasized in the southern counties: the decrease of the presence by over 10 percentage points in the counties as Teleorman and Dâmbovița between 2009 and 2024 is a notable anomaly, indicating possible demographic or civic changes in these areas.

3. The constant presence raised in Ilfov: Ilfov County is constantly detached with the highest vote presence, often far above the national average and the other counties.

4.. Recent growths in counties with traditional low presence (2024 vs 2019): Notable increases in Covasna and Harghita in 2024 are interesting, given their low historical presence.

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The analysis was generated by Rainman, a tool created by the Digital Nation, an organization based on the development of advanced technologies with applicability in different fields.

Rainman is based on mathematical algorithms that learn from data and, although the rear technology offers a high degree of objectivity, significantly above the average of a human interpretation, it is important to mention that the accuracy of the analyzes generated depends directly on the quality of the data. Under conditions such as overlapping voices, tense moments or high tone, there is a risk that certain information will be perceived or missing.

In the current version, Rainman mainly analyzes the words spoken and cannot fully evaluate the tone of the voice or emotional and nonverbal subtleties, and these functionality will be developed in subsequent versions. The results produced by Rainman must be interpreted with caution, as a complementary tool, not as an absolute source of truth.

The Rainman analysis was based on the voting data (%) and the total number of votes expressed at national and county level for the electoral years 2009, 2014, 2019 and 2024.