Higher prices at the pump are just the beginning: One expert predicts when we'll really feel the oil price hikes

The increase in fuel prices in recent days does not yet reflect the real increase in the price of oil on international markets. Specialists point out that, for now, the price increases in the international market have not been fully transmitted to the pump, but this will happen.

The real wave of price increases did not reach gas stations. PHOTO Shutterstock

Dumitru Chisăliță, president of the Intelligent Energy Association, explains, in an interview granted to Digi24, that diesel arrives at the pump with a delay of several weeks compared to the time of purchase, which means that the recent increases are only the beginning of a wave that could continue in the coming period.

The expert shows that between December 31 and February 28, the price of Brent crude oil increased by 18.5%, while diesel rose in Romania by only 8.5%. From this increase, approx. half comes from the increase in excise duty from January 1, 2026. Removing the tax component, the result is a real increase of about 5% for diesel, well below the evolution of oil.

The difference suggests that the price increases in the international market have not yet been fully transmitted to the pump. Shipping and supply takes anywhere from ten days to three weeks, depending on the source, meaning that diesel bought now at higher prices won't arrive at the stations until a few weeks from now.

“If we bring from the European area or from Turkey, we need about 10 days to arrive. If we are talking about the Persian Gulf area, we are talking for two weeks or even three. So the diesel that costs $83 today, I should see it in 10 days if it comes from Turkey or in three weeks if it comes from the Persian Gulf“, detailed Dumitru Chisăliță., in the show “In front of you”.

Why Prices Are Rising: Global Risks and Traders' Reaction

Asked if the tensions in the Strait of Hormuz area are the direct cause of the increases, the economist says the situation is more complex: traders have assessed an increased global risk since the beginning of the year, influenced by events in Venezuela and other sensitive areas, which led to an increase in the price of oil before the effects of the conflict were visible.

In terms of supply, Romania is in a relatively safe position, because it has domestic production, three refineries and commercial stocks that can cover consumption for 2-4 weeks. Added to these are strategic crude oil reserves for another 30–60 days, plus annual domestic production of 2.8 million tons, equivalent to about 20% of the country's gasoline and diesel needs.

In an extreme scenario, in which imports would be completely blocked, Romania could operate for approximately three months only from stocks, a situation that is not currently happening.

Why fuel is so expensive: Taxes are half the price

Dumitru Chisăliță emphasizes, however, that the existence of stocks does not guarantee price stability. Almost half of the price of gasoline is excise duty and VAT, and for gasoline the share of taxes even reaches 55%.

“We pay VAT on excise duty, a tax on tax”

The economist says that the state has tools to moderate price increases, such as adjusting the excise duty, changing the VAT or eliminating additional taxes.

“We pay VAT on excise duty, a tax on tax“, states Chisăliță, emphasizing that this practice is rarely found at the international level.