What will happen if Iran boycotts the 2026 World Cup » A Romanian could go to the final tournament
Article by Maria Olteanu – Published on Sunday, 01 March 2026, 08:25 / Updated on Sunday, 01 March 2026 08:25
Just a few months before the start of the 2026 World Cup, the Iranian national team threatens to withdraw and not participate in the competitionat a time of rising military tension between the host country, the United States, and the Iranians, who would play all their group matches in the US. In this context, the national team from the United Arab Emirates, led by the Romanian Cosmin Olăroiu (56 years old), could be the big beneficiary.
Escalation of the conflict began early Saturday with US and Israeli airstrikes on several Iranian cities, including the capital Tehran, after weeks of diplomatic tension. In response, Iran launched its own missiles against Israel and North American air bases in the Gulf region, particularly in the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Bahrain.
“With what happened today and this attack by the United States, it is unlikely that we can look forward to the World Cup with hope, but the decision belongs to the leaders of the sport,” Mehdi Taj, president of the Iran Football Federation, told a Tehran-based television station.
Thus, Iran's presence at the final tournament in the summer is in question, so the organizers must take into account the situation in which the Iranians will no longer appear, and another national team will come to Group G, along with New Zealand, Belgium and Egypt.
If Iran withdraws from the World Cup, its place could be taken by the United Arab Emirates
FIFA has reacted to the extremely complicated situation in the Middle East. Asked about the impact of this crisis on the World Cup, the general secretary of FIFA, Mattias Grafstrom, was cautious. “I read the news as you did this morning (no Saturday). I had a meeting today and it would be premature to comment in detail,” he said during an International Football Association Board (IFAB) meeting in Wales.
Iran, who in March 2025 secured their fourth consecutive qualification to the finals of a World Cup, have group stage matches scheduled for June against New Zealand and Belgium in Los Angeles, and against Egypt in Seattle. The team's training base is provided at the Kino Sports Complex in Tucson, Arizona.
It is still unclear how recent geopolitical developments may affect Iran's participation in the World Cup. However, the tournament regulations provide for contingency measures in case Iran, in this case, withdraws or is prevented from competing, according to abola.pt.
In this case, FIFA states that, under the stated circumstances, the country in question is replaced “with an indicated alternate selected, usually the second-ranked direct from the qualifiers or the highest-ranked non-qualified team in that confederation”.
Opportunity for the United Arab Emirates?
Cosmin Olăroiu / Photo: UAE Instagram
In this scenario, the UAE could benefit. The UAE were the top-seeded non-qualifiers in the Asian qualifiers, a campaign that guaranteed them a place in the continental play-off against Iraq.
However, the UAE were beaten in dramatic fashion after a penalty kick converted in the 90th+17th minute, allowing Iraq to advance to the intercontinental play-off scheduled for March 31, where they will face either Bolivia or Suriname.
Cosmin Olăroiu, the United Arab Emirates coach, was considering leaving the national team at the end of 2025, after missing the main goal, but in the end he stayed, although he would have liked to take over a club team.
It remains to be seen now, if the door to participation in the World Cup will open, how things will evolve and if he will continue on the national team bench.
Another option considered would be to go straight to IRAQ in place of Iran in Group G, with the United Arab Emirates contesting the intercontinental tie as an alternative route into the tournament.
