Spring is just around the corner, but market temperatures are already elevated by geopolitical tensions. The investment sentiment in the first week of March will be heated up by the report from the American labor market. In Poland, it will be several economic data and, above all, the Monetary Policy Council's decision on interest rates.
Monday, March 2: Polish PMI and GDP
The first day of the March week will be spent analyzing industrial PMI data from the largest economies. First they will come from Japan (1:45), then the readings will concern Poland (9:00), Hungary (9:00), Spain (9:15), Italy (9:45), France (9:50), Germany (9:55), the euro zone (10:00) and Great Britain (10:30) and the United States (15:45).
At 10:00, the Central Statistical Office will publish the final GDP data for the fourth quarter – the forecasts assume an increase of 4.0% y/y and 1.0% q/q.
In Europe, there will also be data on retail sales in Germany (08:00). The schedule includes an afternoon speech by the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde (3:00 p.m.). Data on industrial activity will arrive from the USA (ISM index at 4:00 p.m.).
Tuesday, March 3: inflation in the euro zone and signals from the Fed
The most important point of the day will be the publication of preliminary CPI inflation data in the euro zone for February (11:00). The previous readings were 1.7% for the overall index and 2.2% for core inflation. We will also learn inflation data in Turkey. Hungarians and Czechs will present GDP data.
In the evening (3:55 p.m. and 5:45 p.m.), speeches by FOMC representatives Williams and Kashkari are scheduled, which may shed light on the further steps of the American central bank.
Wednesday, March 4: MPC decision and ADP report
This is the most important day for the Polish zloty, when we will learn the decision of the Monetary Policy Council regarding interest rates (currently 4.00%). Most analysts and economists expect an interest rate cut of 25 basis points.
Falling inflation (2.2% in January, below the NBP target of 2.5%) and slowing wage growth (6.1% y/y) create space for easing monetary policy. NBP President Adam Glapiński suggested that March is a good moment for a cut, and the new inflation projection will support this decision. The Monetary Policy Council maintained rates in January and February (reference rate at 4%), which was a pause after previous cuts.
The day will bring a series of final February PMI releases from the services sector. These data will come from China (2:45), India (6:00), Spain (9:15), Italy (9:45), France (9:50), Germany (9:55), the euro zone (10:00), the United Kingdom (10:30) and the United States (15:45).
Moreover, at 9:00 we will find out what the February inflation was in Switzerland (8:30) and the Czech Republic (9:00). In turn, at 11:00 we will learn the producer inflation in the euro zone and the unemployment rate there. Moving to the western side of the Atlantic, we will receive a report on the labor market. This will be the February ADP report measuring employment change in the private sector (at 2:15 p.m.).
In addition, at 8:00 p.m. we will receive the Beige Book, in which regional branches of the Fed describe the state of the economic situation in the US.
The financial report on the WSE will be shown by Asseco BS, Stalexport, Remak, and Creotech has convened an EGM regarding the division and separation of Creotech Quantum.
Thursday, March 5: ECB minutes
On Thursday, markets will focus on the publication of data on the condition of consumers in the euro zone. The retail sales report will appear at 11:00. The French and Spanish will report on industrial production. About the Swiss unemployment rate. The schedule also includes Swedish inflation and minutes from the ECB's monetary policy meeting (1:30 p.m.).
At the same time, data on import and export prices will arrive from the USA. In addition, we have further data from the American labor market, which brings us closer to Friday's main course in this field. This includes: applications for unemployment benefits or the Challenger report.
At 3:00 p.m. the conference of the NBP president explaining the Monetary Policy Council's decision on interest rates is expected to start.
Two banks will show their results on the WSE: ING and BNP Paribas.
Friday, March 6: “Labor Day” in the US and euro zone GDP
The week will end with the publication of the most important report from the American economy – labor market data (NFP) at 2:30 p.m. Investors will learn about the change in employment in non-agricultural sectors (previously 130K), the unemployment rate and wage dynamics. Earlier, at 11:00, we will receive confirmed data on the euro zone's GDP for the fourth quarter, and at 8:00, data on orders in German industry.
The Monetary Policy Council will publish the minutes of the February meeting.
