Dinamo risks a huge collapse

GSP dug through all the numbers since the play-off and play-out system was implemented, from the 2015-2016 competitive season exactly a decade ago, to see what the difference between the first and second teams was when the regular season ended.

The record is held by CFR Clujin the 2021-2022 season, which had 14 points, so 7 after the half, at the time of entering the play-off against the second place holder, FCSB.

Craiova can't break the record, but it can distance itself

Now, Universitatea Craiova has 56 points and a lead of +4 over the followers Rapid and Dinamo. After halftime, Olteni would remain two points ahead. Certainly, the record of those from CFR Cluj cannot be broken, but the present advantage could increase it.

Hypothetically speaking, the maximum distance that could be between 1st place and 2nd place at the time of entering the play-offs would be 5 pointsbut it is hard to believe that the Oltenians will have such an advance over two stages. Why? Craiova should win both matches (with Metaloglobus and Rapid), and Dinamo and Rapid should lose everything. Dinamo still has to play FC Argeș and CFR Cluj, Rapid with Unirea Slobozia and Universitatea Craiova. While Dinamo's schedule is complicated, it is hard to believe that Rapid will stumble against Unirea Slobozia.

Thus, if this scenario were to happen, with consecutive victories by Olten, and Dinamo, Rapid, U Cluj and CFR will not exceed 52 points, Craiova would reach 62 points, which would mean 31 points at the start of the play-off and could have a difference of at most 5 lengths from the second place holder.

How the difference between 1st and 2nd place looked at the start of each play-off

* – with rounding

7points was the biggest difference with which he entered the play-offs, it happened in the 2021-2022 season.

Play-off and play-out key dates

• 2016-2017 season: it was the only time when three teams fought for the title until the last round (9th stage of the play-off: FCSB – 41, Viitorul – 41, Dinamo – 39).

• 2017-2018 season: the title decided in the last stage

• Season 2019-2020: the title was decided in the last stage, with a direct match between U Craiova and CFR Cluj organized as a final.

• Season 2020-2021: it was the only time the team that entered from first position lost the title.

• Season 2021-2022: FCSB recovered from the gap and reached two points behind Cluj at the end of the 8th round of the play-off, but lost the title in the next stage, after drawing with FC Voluntari, score 2-2, a match with a big refereeing error, and CFR won 2-1 against Craiova University.

• Season 2023-2024: the red-blues won the title with three stages to go;

Pressure on the leader

Unirea Slobozia – University of Craiova // photo: Andrei Furnigă (GSP.ro)

Regardless of the distance with which Craiova would enter the play-off, the situation of Olten will not be a simple one at all. Craiova could have a consistent advantage, but, looking over the history of previous editions, it would not be decisive.

In the 2021/2022 competitive season, when CFR entered with +7 points from second place, FCSB was one step away from turning the fortunes of the championship around, having recovered from the gap with CFR, being in hand with two stages to go.

35years have passed since the last title won by Craiova, 23 since Rapid was last champion and 19 since Dinamo finished in first place in a championship

Dinamo risks a huge collapse in the last two stages of the regular season

Rapid – Dinamo, match images by Ionuț Iordache and Cristi Preda (GSP.ro)

For Dinamo, in 2nd place at the moment, there is even a risk of falling off the podium at the end of the regular season. Two tough matches are coming for the people of Bucharest, both against teams directly involved in the fight to catch the play-off.

In a tie with Rapid, Dinamo would fall to 3rd place at the end of the regular season, as the Giulio team have the advantage of direct matches.

What's more, Dinamo could drop to 6th place, if they lose both matches, and CFR, U Cluj and FC Argeș all win

The current Superliga standings