A stronger dollar and a return to declines on the WSE. KGHM and Orlen after pressure from raw materials
Tuesday's quotations on the Warsaw Stock Exchange were marked by a clear deterioration of moods as the dollar strengthened. The indices on the Polish stock exchange are becoming more and more dependent on the prices of raw materials and metals. In the absence of support from banks, the results of the WIG20 session were determined by the depreciation of KGHM and Orlen.
At the close of Tuesday's session, WIG20 fell by 1.27%. The broad WIG index decreased by 1.15%. and mWIG40 lost 0.94 percent. Only the segment of the smallest companies showed relative resilience – sWIG80 recorded a more modest decline of 0.34%. The turnover on the broad market amounted to nearly PLN 1.79 billion, and on blue chips alone it exceeded PLN 1.754 billion.
Global cooling and the raw material “China wall”
According to Mateusz Chrzanowski, an analyst at Noble Securities, today's declines are a purely technical correction, correlated with events on the core markets.
– Today's session is of a corrective nature and it is related to what is happening in the United States, where we see clear disadvantages. The sentiment has deteriorated and our companies are losing because of it, said Mateusz Chrzanowski, an analyst at Noble Securities.
The strengthening of the dollar against the euro by over 0.3% and against the zloty by over 0.4% could have been important for the condition of the Warsaw Stock Exchange on Tuesday. in the second part of the day. In relation to the latest quotations of the American currency, DM BOŚ analysts wrote that they noticed a massive advantage of transactions resulting from the strengthening of the dollar.
We notice a massive predominance of transactions on the strengthening of the dollar and questions about the same.
However, voices from Trump's camp continue to support his weakening.
This is what the course looks like in both of his terms 👇 History does not repeat itself, although in Trump's case there are many analogies
/corner pic.twitter.com/iVGqUdWiZC— blogi.bossa.pl (@BlogiBossaPL) February 17, 2026
“However, voices from the Trump camp still support his weakening,” they added, showing what the dollar index quotations (measuring its strength against major currencies, editor's note) look like in both of his terms. “History apparently does not repeat itself, although in the case of Trump there are many analogies,” they concluded.
KGHM is like silver
The largest shareholder of Tuesday's session was KGHM, whose price increased by 6.46%. The company's depreciation is a direct result of the situation on the LME metal exchange in London, where copper fell by 2% and silver lost over 7%. The situation is made worse by the Lunar New Year in China – the absence of the largest copper consumer in the world drastically limits demand activity and makes it impossible to maintain commodity prices at higher levels.
– There are no investors from China this week because they are celebrating the New Year, and this limits activity in raw materials and is not conducive to maintaining copper prices – said Mateusz Chrzanowski.
It is worth noting that KGHM is in a phase of extreme volatility – only since the beginning of the year the price has fluctuated in a wide range between PLN 274 and PLN 396. Even the information about the extension of the strategic contract with NKT for the years 2028-2036, the value of which is estimated at EUR 5.4-7 billion, could not reverse the negative sentiment.
Budimex is retreating, Orlen is under pressure
Orlen's shares were also under pressure in the WIG20 index (2.37%), which correlated with over 2%. oil depreciation. This week, Orlen will show its results for the fourth quarter, which may also require positioning itself to receive them.
Moreover, the construction giant Budimex (-2.32%) was under supply pressure, correcting last week's impressive 9% growth. Over 2 percent Grupa Kęty also recorded declines (-2.05%), and let us remind you that these two companies have benefited greatly in recent months from the narrative regarding the approaching turning point in the war in Ukraine and possible peace.
In the next round of peace negotiations, the delegations of Ukraine, Russia and the USA will gather in Geneva, among others. on territorial issues. Trilogues in Switzerland will be held on Tuesday and Wednesday. Washington is putting pressure on Kiev, persuading it to make concessions, as announced by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky last week. According to him, the White House wants the war to end before the summer, and Ukraine to hold presidential elections and return Donbas to Russia, even though the Kremlin does not control the entire region.
A bright spot in WIG20
At the opposite end of the results table of WIG20 companies, Pepco was the growth leader among blue chips. The company gained 1.19 percent, recording the fourth consecutive session of growth. However, the retailer is still up 4.5% since the beginning of the year. below the line, which suggests that the current rebound may be catching up with the sector.
Banks were surprisingly stable compared to the rest of the market, with the WIG-Banki index remaining neutral (0.02%). The largest increases were recorded in the shares of Santander (0.47%) and mBank (0.59%), as well as Alior (0.42%) and, cosmetically, Pekao (0.04%). However, the largest one was PKO (-0.22%).
JSW and Asseco at the bottom of mWIG40
The medium-cap sector was mainly burdened by JSW, whose price fell by 4.31%. The coal company remains one of the most speculative securities on the Warsaw Stock Exchange, fluctuating in the range exceeding PLN 10 since January. In a morning interview for Radio Zet, the Minister of State Assets said that the situation in the company was dramatic. The situation of Asseco Poland also looks bleak – the IT giant lost 3.99% on Tuesday, recording the sixth consecutive session of declines and deepening the two-week decline to over 11%. Sentiment towards the IT industry has deteriorated dramatically with the emergence of new solutions based on artificial intelligence.
