— The Polish economy is the growth leader among the most important economies in the European Union, our result is the highest after Ireland and Malta – said Marek Cierpiał-Wolan, president of the Central Statistical Office, at a press conference on Friday.
“The Polish economy is on the offensive. We are closing the entire year 2025 with a GDP growth of 3.6%, much higher than the previous ones. The economic growth path has been confirmed. Investments are growing. 2026 will be a year of acceleration,” wrote Andrzej Domański, Minister of Finance and Economy, on the X website.
Economists are not surprised by the result, but emphasize that the latest monthly data from the real sphere of the Polish economy were very good and indicate an acceleration of the annual growth dynamics recorded in individual quarters of 2025.
Consumption helped. What about interest rates?
“Overall, the data confirm that the pace of GDP growth is accelerating, supported by solid consumption results. Although in our opinion the new investment cycle has already begun, it has not yet reached its full potential. We expect investment growth to accelerate in 2026, which should allow GDP growth to remain close to 4 percent.” – said economists from Santander Bank Polska in a commentary on the Central Statistical Office data.
They added that the high GDP reading and strong consumption results make them believe that the Monetary Policy Council will postpone the decision to cut interest rates at least until March. The next MPC meeting will be held next week. In January, the Council did not change rates after several cuts in a row. Throughout 2025, the cost of money decreased by 1.75 percentage points. and the reference rate dropped to 4%.
Economists pointed out that the acceleration of Polish GDP growth in 2025 compared to data from 2024 was due to strong internal demand, including a 3.7% increase in private consumption. and investments by 4.2 percent. As they noted, assuming that the data on GDP growth in the first three quarters of 2025 were not revised, the information on GDP growth throughout 2025 suggests that the GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter of last year was between 3.9 and 4.2 percent. year to year.
Private consumption – as Santander economists pointed out – probably increased by 4-4.4% in the last three months of 2025. on an annual basis and was “clearly above” the 3.5% growth assumed by the bank. They added that investment growth probably slowed down to 4.2-4.5%. year on year from 7.1 percent in the third quarter, while they expected a further acceleration to about 8%.
Disappointing investments at the end of the year
Credit Agricole economists drew attention to the slowdown in investment dynamics. “This result is a great disappointment in the light of the increased use of EU funds under the Multiannual Financial Framework and the National Reconstruction Plan indicated by the data. This result may reflect both weaker-than-expected growth in corporate investment and lower dynamics of public investment, which is characterized by significant volatility. on a quarterly basis,” they wrote.
See also: The year 2026 will bring an increase in GDP and a decrease in inflation. Poles will benefit from stable prices
They added that in the case of the private sector, such a picture is consistent with the results of the NBP Quick Monitoring, according to which the investment optimism of companies decreased in the fourth quarter of 2025. In addition, approximately 75 percent enterprises do not plan significant investments, most often justifying this by the sufficient – in their opinion – current scale of operations and uncertain demand, which remains one of the main barriers to increasing investment activity.
According to economists, it cannot be ruled out that lower investment activity in the public sector also contributed to the disappointing result. “Especially – according to him – this reduction in activity may concern those areas that are characterized by high irregularity in the implementation of expenditure, e.g. defense-related investments,” added Credit Agricole experts.
High hopes for investments
What do analysts expect from Poland's economic growth rate in 2026? Optimism prevails, but forecasts vary. “There are many indications that economic growth this year will be at least as fast as last year. Household income will continue to grow dynamically, supporting consumption. However, it will not be the main driver of growth – in 2026 this role will be taken over by investments, which, according to our forecast, will increase by approximately 12 percent. We forecast that in 2026 GDP will increase by 3.7%.” – PKO BP economists indicated in a commentary on the Central Statistical Office data.
Their colleagues from Bank Pekao wrote that the result of the Polish economy at the end of 2025 is slightly better than their forecasts, but consistent with the generally positive scenario for the following quarters. “For a long time we have assumed that GDP growth will amount to 4%. , and in the last forecast publication, we added upwards risks to this number. It is too early to say that these types of risks are materializing, but it can be said without any major error that forecasts that do not assume acceleration in 2026 are not realistic,” they said.
ING Bank Śląski analysts forecast only a slight acceleration of GDP dynamics in 2026, to 3.7%. They expect household consumption growth to exceed 3%. despite a clear slowdown in the dynamics of disposable income.
“The continued growth in private consumption should be accompanied by a further rebound in investments, largely on the basis of funds transferred to the economy from the National Reconstruction Plan (KPO) and the gradually increasing absorption of structural funds from the financial perspective for 2021-2027. The acceleration of the economic situation in Germany expected in 2026 will also be important owed to the fiscal package,” wrote ING economists.
They added that today's data on Germany's GDP in the fourth quarter of 2025 suggest an acceleration of growth to 0.3%. on a quarterly and seasonally adjusted basis and further recovery in 2026. “As a result, the balance of risks for our GDP forecast in 2026 is slightly upwards (towards a higher reading),” they noted.
