You don't have to like Dalio to find his analysis significant. Founder of the legendary Bridgewater Associates hedge fund, one of the largest and most successful funds of this type in the worldis not some self-proclaimed financial guru from the internet underworld. His fund has assets worth over USD 90 billion. (over PLN 322 billion), and his private net worth is USD 15.4 billion. (i.e. over PLN 55 billion).
The world, especially the financial world, listens with bated breath when he speaks. It draws conclusions based on huge amounts of data that it collects, analyzes and then translates into action patterns in a thoughtful and prudent manner.
The fact that more and more people from outside the world of finance are paying attention to it is primarily due to the development of the situation on capital markets last year. It happened there a paradigm shift whose true significance is yet to be seen by many. The rise in treasury bond yields and the simultaneous gold boom are two sides of a coin that Dalio calls the “war of capital.” — this thesis is not completely new, but it is only now gaining strength because it is clearly confirmed by market trends.
Dalio, who recently caused a stir with the thesis that last year's increase in gold prices is not a sign of market strength but a wake-up call for the state of the global financial system, warns against radical change. Anyone who invests, especially in gold, should listen to what Dalio has to say.
Dalio's concerns stem from the fact that countries with large amounts of US dollars and US Treasuries may be increasingly less willing to finance the US trade deficit as a result of President Donald Trump's chaotic and destructive trade policies.
“Trade deficits and trade wars beget capital wars,” Dalio said. “When looking at conflicts, you can't ignore the possibility of capital wars. In other words: there may not be the same propensity to buy U.S. debt anymore.”
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And the trade deficit continues to grow [czemu zaprzecza Donald Trump]. The United States shows no signs of moving to a more sound fiscal policy. Trump is constantly putting pressure on the US central bank, the Fed, to create conditions enabling people to continue living on credit for as long as possible.
Right now US debt amounts to over USD 38 trillion. (over PLN 136 trillion), i.e. approx. PLN 113 thousand hole. (nearly PLN 405,000) per inhabitant, and every day this mountain increases by approximately USD eight billion. (approx. PLN 26,670 million). The debt ratio, which determines the ratio of liabilities to economic results, is currently approximately 125%.
“Our currency, your problem”
Dalio's conclusion from this situation for 2026 is simple and very disturbing – the United States has lost its financial freedom. With interest rates that have now exceeded $1.2 trillion. (PLN 4.3 trillion) annually, the enormous privilege of the dollar (“our currency, your problem”) has become a burden. “When the supply of debt exceeds the demand, we have a dilemma,” says Dalio. While Washington continues to gleefully print money to pay interest on old debts, the debt's former biggest buyers are pulling out.
This is particularly clear in the example of Beijing. The numbers are impressive: China's holdings of US Treasuries recently fell to their lowest level since 2008 – below $680 billion. (approx. PLN 2 trillion 436 billion 540 million). This is not a coincidence, but a strategy. China is diversifying its reserves to avoid dollar-related political risks. What do they buy instead? Gold.
President of the People's Republic of China Xi Jinping (illustrative photo)Maxim Shemetov-Pool/Getty Images/Getty Images
Its share of China's foreign exchange reserves has reached an all-time high. For Dalio, this is a logical consequence in a world where currencies are used as weapons. Gold is a “neutral currency”, with no third-party risks.
This awareness is now fully felt in the world of finance. For months, the price of this precious metal has been reaching record highs, and on Wednesday, January 21, also driven by geopolitical uncertainty, it reached a peak of $4,886. (over PLN 17,500), significantly exceeding the level of EUR 4,000 (over PLN 16,800). Over the next twelve months, the price in commercial currency increased by approximately 77%.
Japan is so in debt that even small increases in interest rates push the country's budget beyond its budget.
Central banks have been net buyers for years, and demand from financial investors also drives up the price. More and more private investors are losing confidence in paper money in the face of global over-indebtedness and are turning to precious metals.
However, it is only now that the rise in gold prices has come into the spotlight, and the decades-long pursuit of records has been largely hidden: since the introduction of the euro in 2002, gold has appreciated in value by approximately 1,200%. Who invested PLN 10,000 then? euro (over PLN 42,000), today has precious metals worth over PLN 130,000. euro (nearly PLN 547,000).
But while the main focus is on the rivalry between the United States and China, Japan is gaining prominence. For decades, the Bank of Japan artificially kept interest rates at zero, but in 2026 the dam broke. The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds has reached its highest level in almost two decades.
The problem is that Japan is so indebted that even small increases in interest rates push the government budget beyond its budget.
If Japanese investors – currently the largest holder of US public debt, amounting to approximately $1.2 trillion. — will now withdraw their capital back home to take advantage of finally rising domestic interest rates, the US bond market will lose its most important support. US Finance Minister Bessent has just called on the Japanese government to stop the collapse of the domestic bond market. However, this can only be ensured by further accelerating money printing, which in turn would mainly benefit gold owners.
Dalio's forecast for 2026 is a tangible blow to the classic 60/40 portfolio, which should contain 60%. shares and 40 percent bonds. At this point in the cycle, bonds are no longer a safe haven, but a “certificate of guaranteed loss of purchasing power.”
Gold, productive enterprises with pricing capabilities (artificial intelligence developers whose models help other enterprises become more productive) and commodities are his favorites. In a world where trust in paper promises is eroding, the only thing that matters to the Wall Street legend is what can be touched or whose usefulness can be directly measured.
Dalio left the elite gathered in Davos with an uncomfortable truth – the old order in which the West dictated the rules and the dollar dictated the pace of development has become history. According to Dalio, anyone who continues to invest according to the old playbook in 2026 will realize that they are playing a game whose rules have long since changed.
I’m Ashley Davis as an editor, I’m committed to upholding the highest standards of integrity and accuracy in every piece we publish. My work is driven by curiosity, a passion for truth, and a belief that journalism plays a crucial role in shaping public discourse. I strive to tell stories that not only inform but also inspire action and conversation.
