An American general with an unfavorable scenario for Poland and Europe: I am sure it will happen. The countdown began
– I am sure that there will be some reduction in the presence of the US in Europe – says in an interview with Politico the retired General Ben Hodges, former commander of the American armed forces in Europe.
– Together we need a strong land presence, especially to overcome the exceptional advantage of Russia, which is the possibility of distributing their strength on our border – says Christopher Cavoli, the current commander of the US armed forces in Europe, which is also the Supreme Commander of NATO forces in Europe, adding that adding that Reducing the US's presence on the continent would inevitably “slow down” the reaction to Russia's attack.
Europe after 75 years of addiction to American troops shows withdrawal symptoms. European capitals are divided into how to react to the likely reduction of American troops.
During his first trip to Europe in February 2025, the Secretary of Defense of the United States Peter HegeSeth warned that the presence of American troops in Europe “would not last forever”, causing a wave of movement in the capitals of European countries. In a similar spirit, he spoke on April 23, 2025 in Pennsylvania, saying that “the time when the United States was the only guarantee of Europe's security was over.”
Since then, representatives of the American and European authorities have repeatedly denied that the US involvement in NATO under President Donald Trump was weakening, and Washington considered the reduction of troops – but despite these assurances, few experts doubt that the Americans will keep their presence at their current level.
Estimates about the number of American forces in Europe range from 70 thousand. up to 90 thousand Soldiers stationed permanently. However, all estimates indicate a significant decrease compared to the 1950s, when over 400,000 were stationed in the most tense years of the Cold War. American soldiers.
According to analysts and current and former officers of the American armed forces, withdrawal – or even a reduction – the number of American soldiers in Europe would significantly weaken the deterrent strength towards Russia, which would have consequences for both Europeans and Americans. The report of the German Economic Institute (IW Cologne) warned this week that the replacement of the US key military abilities may take Europe from 10 to 12 years.
“I advise you to maintain the current state of the armed forces,” said General Christopher Cavoli, commander of the US armed forces in Europe at the beginning of this month, who is also the Supreme Commander of NATO forces in Europe.
Christopher Cavoli, commander of the US armed forces in Europe
Cavoli retires this summer, and Washington reportedly considers the resignation from the command in NATO after his departure, which would allow the European to take this position for the first time since the alliance in 1949.
Some countries want to prepare for the US withdrawal from Europe, instead of counting on happiness and that the situation will not change. In an interview with Politico, three European officials stated that not all European capitals took the same position.
Self -fulfilling prophecy
According to the British Think Tank International Institute for Strategic Studies, the largest contingent of American soldiers in Europe – over 38,000 – He is stationed in Germany. Over 14 thousand Soldiers are located in Poland, 12 thousand in Italy and 10,000 in Great Britain.
At the beginning of April 2025, the American NBC News television station announced that Pentagon is considering withdrawal to 10,000. soldiers from Central Europe, mainly from Poland and Romania. Both countries strongly denied these reports.
However, several European countries demand from Washington to explain their plans.
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius asked Washington to present an appropriate action plan regarding the possible reduction of troops so that you can start planning for this circumstance. His appeal was repeated by his Finnish counterpart Antti Hakkanen.
So far, the Pentagon has not responded to these appeals.
– The United States has obligations arising from NATO's regional defense plans agreed during the peak in Vilnius in 2023. If the United States say “ok, we are withdrawing”, it will have to occur in consultation with allies to determine how to change plans and who can do what – Hodges said in an interview with Politico.
Other European governments still hope that the mid -term elections in the United States in two years and the next presidential election in 2028 will weaken Trump's power and restore the former alliance from the USA.
Three European officials in an interview with Politico said that the authorities of the countries in Europe are afraid that starting preparations for the worst can become a self -fulfilling prophecy and only accelerate the withdrawal of the US from Europe, which they still want to avoid.
“Citing [byłego kanclerza Niemiec Otto von] Bismarck, suicide is not committed for fear of death, “said Latvian Defense Minister Andris Spruds during a conference in Paris at the beginning of this month.
“Europeans have more strength”
This is not the first time the American administration is considering reducing its military presence in Europe to focus on Asia.
During the rule of Barack Obama, the United States began actions in this direction, but changed the course – and increased the number of soldiers in Europe – after Russian President Vladimir Putin illegally annexed Crimea in 2014.
“Partial withdrawal will probably start with American soldiers who have been arranged since February 2022, when Russia has invaded Ukraine,” Harris said in an interview with Politico.
American soldiers in Europe are subject to various systems.
Forces allocated permanently are stationed in Europe for a long time with families; Most of them are located in Germany, Italy and Great Britain. Long -term forces, financed from funds over a normal budget, include a program of reinforced NATO presence and Atlantic Resolve operation; The United States command a multinational combat group in Poland. National Guard Partnership programs are subject to bilateral agreements with European countries.
Harris explained that Trump would not need the consent of the US Congress to reduce the number of soldiers in Europe.
US President Donald Trump (illustrative photos)
During his first presidential term in 2020, Trump announced a plan to withdraw around 12,000. soldiers from Germany. Some of them were to be moved to other places in Europe, and some were to return home.
“The plan has been suspended due to the costs associated with the withdrawal of these soldiers,” Harris said. Ultimately, the plan was canceled by former president Joe Biden.
According to Hodges, a former commander of the American armed forces, uncertainty may encourage European capitals to “combine their abilities and defense industry”.
In his opinion, the American armed forces in Europe constitute “nuclear scares, air and sea force”. Hodges added that “however, on earth, in terms of the general size of the army and abilities, Europeans have more strength.”
