The results of Polish banks are stabilizing. Fitch forecasts what's next

The results of Polish banks will stabilize. Lower interest rates will reduce net interest margins and lending will continue to improve. Reducing the burden of historical risks will help mitigate the effects of the income tax increase from 2026, says the Fitch rating agency in its latest report.

In 2026, Fitch expects a stable economic situation, stabilization of inflation and normalization of interest rates, which will support the prospects for increased lending by Polish banks.

“At the same time, legacy legal costs will continue to fall, mitigating the moderate decline in operating profitability caused by lower interest rates and higher corporate tax on banks' net profits from 2026.” – it was written.

Fitch estimates that costs related to legal risk arising from mortgage loan portfolios in foreign currencies no longer constitute a burden on the business profile of selected banks.

“This is due to the fact that provisions have reached a significant level and the number of new legal cases has continued to decline on average to the level observed around 2021. We expect the level of legal risk provisions to be significantly lower in 2026,” the agency said.

Fitch expects net interest margins to decline next year.

Credit growth began to accelerate in late 2025 as lower interest rates and the strong performance of the Polish economy translated into demand for loans. We expect this trend to continue in 2026, with a gradual acceleration in the loan portfolio, it said.

pel/ana/