The alternative classification of the Superligi » Rapid would not be in the play-off, CFR and FCSB yes!

Ashley Davis16/12/2025

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Article by Daniel Grigore – Published Tuesday, December 16, 2025, 2:48 p.m. / Updated Tuesday, December 16, 2025, 2:48 p.m.

The Superliga ranking according to expected points (expected number of points) has CFR Cluj and FCSB in the play-off zone, but not Rapid.

Expected points (xP /xPts) is an increasingly present parameter in the reports of statisticians and analysts. It ignores actual match results and seeks to determine how many points a team should score based on the quality of chances they create (xG) and face (xGA).

The calculation of expected points is based on Poisson distributions of expected goals (xG and xGA), through which they are estimated probabilities of different final outcomes. Basically, the bigger the difference between a team's xG (expected goals scored) and xGA (expected goals conceded), the more likely it is to be credited with an xP close to 3.

It is not a perfect parameter, given that the xG model used in the calculation is based solely on phases of play completed with a shotnot on all dangerous possession situations, and sure at the end of the season medals are awarded based on actual scoring, but xP remains a useful indicator for evaluating a team's performance.

What the xP parameter tells us about the Super League: Fast, from 9th place

Looking at the data Wyscout after 20 stages, we see how the xP hierarchy keeps only 3 of the teams actually in the top 6 in the play-off zone. Rapid and FC Botoșani, two of the top 3 ranked, would be below the 6th placeand FCSB and CFR Cluj, the giants that for a long time pedaled empty in an attempt to get closer to the play-offs, would be in the TOP 6.

Reported exclusively on xG, the leader in the Super League would be Dinamo, with 37.3 expected points. In the case of “red dogs”, the parameter calculated very close to reality, because Kopic's students have accumulated 38 points so far. In other words, they got about as much as they deserved from the first 20 stages.

Also in Bucharest, but at Rapid, we find a strong imbalance: the game of the Giulești team would not have recommended their real endowment, of 39 points, but only 28.4.

Some examples of such matches: according to the xG – xGA difference, which quantifies how much danger Rapid created at the opposing goal versus how vulnerable its own goal was, the Giulio team would not have deserved to get anything from the draw with Craiova University (2-2), and what happened at 2-0 with Dinamo is downright striking.

That is a match that the statistics tell us that Giulio had no right to win. Rapid generated a total xG of 1.37, Dynamo 3.71 – it's very rare for a team to produce both danger and not score.

Another duel in which the white-and-cherry team got the upper hand perhaps undeservedly is the 3-1 win against Farul, won on October 4. The beacon had +1.19 at xG (2.07 – 0.88).

The quality of the game, translated into xP, tells us that Rapid should have got one or two points from the 3 games (xP of about 1.3), but in reality they accumulated 7.

FCSB, the second xP in the Superliga

It is surprising that the formations on places 9-11, FCSB, Farul and CFR Cluj are all among the top 6 in xP value.

The theory tells us that FCSB should have obtained 35 or 36 points, while the champion only managed 28.

On paper, Oțelul (xP 32.9), Farul (30.8) and CFR Cluj (30.6) are also much better. In the actual ranking, their scores are 30, 27 and 23.

The consideration is the same: given how many chances they created (xG), they should have gotten more out of the matches played.

Hermannstadt, the “unlucky” Superleague

Depending on the discrepancies between the actual and expected scores, the teams can be divided into two categories: some outperform, some underperform relative to xG.

In the first category we find Rapid (+10.6 points compared to xP), FC Botoșani (+10.6), UTA (+5.1) and, to a lesser extent, Craiova University (+2.9).

At the opposite pole are, in addition to FCSB (-7.7), CFR Cluj (-7.6), Farul (-3.8) and Oțelul (-2.9), Hermannstadtwith a shocking -12.4, Metalloglobus (-5.9) and The oil (-4.3).

Regarding Hermannstadt, the team that scores flagrantly below expectations, the paper's calculations show us a series of matches from which he should have gotten more: 2-2 with U Cluj, 0-1 with Universitatea Craiova, 0-2 with Unirea Slobozia, 0-1 with FC Argeș, 0-2 with Csikszereda.

17.6it is the lowest total xG in the Superliga, recorded by Unirea Slobozia – in other words, the Ialomists produce the least danger at the opposing goals