2025-12-13 13:28, updated 2025-12-13 19:04
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2025-12-13 13:28
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2025-12-13 19:04
The United States is lifting sanctions on potassium from Belarus – Belarusian state media reported on Saturday, quoting the statement of John Coale, the envoy of US President Donald Trump, who met with Alexander Lukashenko in Minsk.
It was not specified what actions the Belarusian side would take in exchange for limiting the sanctions, emphasized Reuters, adding that Belarus is a leading producer of potassium salts, a key ingredient of fertilizers. Domestic deposits of this raw material are among the largest in the world.
Coale, appointed Trump's special envoy for Belarus last month, was tasked by the president to negotiate the release of further political prisoners in talks with Lukashenko – recalled Reuters.
The state-owned Belarusian agency BelTA quoted Coale as saying that he had raised many different issues in negotiations with Lukashenko.
We talked about the war between Ukraine and Russia, about Venezuela,” he said. “We talked about the future. About how to move forward on the path to rapprochement between the US and Belarus, to normalize relations. This is our goal,” Trump's envoy emphasized.
Coale also noted the close relationship between Lukashenko and Russian leader Vladimir Putin in the context of the war in Ukraine. “The president (of Belarus) has a long history of contacts with Putin and is able to advise him. This is very useful in this situation. They are long-time friends and have the necessary relationships to discuss such issues,” Coale said. “Of course, President Putin may accept some advice and not others,” he noted.
The previous visit of the American delegation, also led by John Coale, took place in September and led to the release of 51 political prisoners, including two Polish citizens. In return, the US lifted sanctions against the Belarusian airline Belavia (Belavia).
Since then, however, the Viasna Human Rights Center has classified 157 more people as political prisoners in Belarus.
On November 26, Reuters reported, citing three sources familiar with the matter, that the Trump administration and the Belarusian authorities are talking about the possible release soon of at least 100 political prisoners held in that country.
Minsk, a close ally of Moscow, has been struggling with isolation in the international arena and sanctions from the West for years, emphasized the AP agency.
Lukashenko has ruled the country of 9.5 million people for over three decades. In the meantime, sanctions were repeatedly imposed on the country – both for brutal human rights violations and, among others, for allowing Russia to use the territory of Belarus for a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
How will Belarus benefit from the lifting of American sanctions on potash?
The US lifts sanctions imposed on the Belarusian company Belaruskalij. This is part of the agreement on the release of another group of political prisoners by the Belarusian regime. Economist Lew Lwowski tells the Zierkało portal whether it will be effective, given that EU sanctions will remain in force.
Lev Lviv believes that the sanctions against potassium can be roughly divided into two parts: American and European-Lithuanian. The latter, as he notes, are the most important, because Europe was also a significant market for Belarusian potash. “Secondly, the cheapest way to export our potassium to third countries – Brazil, India, China – is to use the port of Klaipėda. But currently this is not possible,” Lwowski said.
The expert believes that the lifting of US sanctions means that potassium could now be sent to the US, but the logistics still have to go through Russia. “There are two options here. The first is direct rail transport to China, but it is very expensive. The second is shipping to a port in the Leningrad Oblast or Murmansk. The problem is that there is also a constant lack of rail and port capacity,” he said.
According to Lviv, the mere lifting of sanctions will not allow Belarus to earn a billion dollars, which is what Minsk is counting on. “It is more likely that we are talking about millions, maybe tens of millions. It all depends on how much potassium we manage to transport through some port in the Leningrad Oblast in Russia. But now we will be able to sell it on markets with a slightly higher margin, for example in the United States. But potassium in India is not much cheaper than in the US. So yes, we are winning something, but I wouldn't say it can be a big victory,” he said.
According to Lviv, the US no longer has many economic levers to put pressure on Minsk. He mentions sanctions against Belarusian banks as one of them. He also points to other consequences of Lukashenko's negotiations with the Americans.
“The lifting of sanctions may be a prelude to further pressure on the European Union to also lift restrictions – explains Lwowski – For now, we could try to turn to Lithuania and say: look, the Americans have lifted the sanctions; they are an important ally, also a military one. Let's also talk about it. And the same with the European Union. On the other hand, another consequence may be the European Union itself starting similar negotiations with Minsk.”
As Zierkało writes, US sanctions against Bielaruskalij were imposed at the beginning of December 2021. Unlike European restrictions, the ban applied to all the company's products. Therefore, Lithuania, through which a significant part of Belarusian potash fertilizers transited, stopped their transshipment.
In July 2023, the First Deputy Prime Minister of Belarus, Nikolai Snopkov, stated that in recent years, Belarus has supplied the world market with an average of about 9-10 million tons of potassium. Due to sanctions, this volume decreased by approximately 5.5 million tonnes.
Since then, Belarus has stopped publishing information on fertilizer exports. According to the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Belarus's share in world exports of potassium fertilizers decreased from 18 percent. in 2021 to 9 percent in 2023
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