First, a significant portion of Trump's 2024 voters — more than a third — do not consider themselves MAGA (“Make America Great Again”) Republicans. Not only are they less loyal to Trump than MAGA-identifying Republicans, but the poll reveals that some of them have already started to turn away from him. Non-MAGA Trump voters are much more likely to blame the president for the state of the economy, say he has too much power and are pessimistic about the future.
These results clearly show how specific the group that re-elected Trump was, and they foreshadow the upcoming challenges facing the Republican Party.
Deepening divisions in the coalition
More than half of Trump voters last year — 55 percent. — describe themselves as MAGA supporters, but 38 percent does not share this opinion, according to the results of the November 14-17 survey of 2,098 U.S. adults, with a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.
And this is where the cracks start to show: Among those who identify as MAGA voters, 47 percent say the state of the current economy is still Biden's fault, compared to just 26%. Trump voters in 2024 who are not MAGA supporters.
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The divide becomes even more stark in areas that are not typically Republican purview, such as health care: 85 percent. Trump's MAGA voters trust Republicans more to lower health care costs, while only 55 percent voters who are not supporters of the movement share this opinion – 19 percent trusts Democrats, and 27 percent says he has no opinion.
In the case of trust in a given party on economic issues, 88 percent MAGA voters support Republicans overall, but only 63 percent non-MAGA Trump voters declare such support. 28 percent claims that he does not support any party or has no opinion.
In terms of affordability, an issue that Trump believed won him the electionand which White House Deputy Chief of Staff James Blair said he plans to focus on “very closely,” non-MAGA Republicans are more concerned about the cost of living than their MAGA counterparts: 59 percent. compared to 48 percent
Donald Trump speaks during a rally in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, July 31, 2024.SPENCER PLATT/Getty Images
Other conclusions about the economy from the survey:
The non-MAGA group is less likely to believe that Trump took advantage of the opportunity he had to change the economy: 65%. MAGA supporters compared to 46 percent. people who are not supporters of the movement.
Pro-MAGA Republicans believe their personal financial situation has improved over the past five years (52% vs. 24%), while non-MAGA Republicans are virtually split (37% vs. 36%).
Interestingly, 73 percent of pro-MAGA Republicans expect their financial situation to improve over the next five years, up from 57 percent non-MAGA Republicans.
Similarly, MAGA supporters feel more comfortable than the average American (49% to 17%), while other Republicans are divided (30% to 29%).
Trump's base is crumbling
What does all this mean in the face of the upcoming midterm elections? We already have evidence from the by-elections that Trump's 2024 coalition isn't holding and Latino and young male voters are returning to Democrats.
When it comes to overall voting intentions, 92 percent of MAGA-supporting Republicans would support a Republican candidate, while only 62 percent non-MAGA Republicans would do the same.
There is something about the mentality of MAGA Republican voters — a kind of economic optimism — that is enduring even in the current turmoil. Trump's definition of reality permeates their own.
And the Republican Party has less than four years to convert Trump voters into loyal Republican voters.
I’m Ashley Davis as an editor, I’m committed to upholding the highest standards of integrity and accuracy in every piece we publish. My work is driven by curiosity, a passion for truth, and a belief that journalism plays a crucial role in shaping public discourse. I strive to tell stories that not only inform but also inspire action and conversation.
