How long would ZUS survive without state support? A surprising response from the president of ZUS
The head of ZUS, Zbigniew Derdziuk, was recently a guest of the “Onet Morning. Finansowo” program. The presenter asked him to answer the question: “How long would ZUS survive if it did not receive subsidies from the state budget?
The President of ZUS did not think long about the answer, but it turned out to be downright surprising. – ZUS would survive, but people would have problems with it – replied Derdziuk.
Read also: Poland will be a country for old people. The new Central Statistical Office simulation leaves no doubts
PLN 90 billion from the state
However, he did not specify what the problem would be. One can only guess that it would concern the inability to pay benefits such as pensions, annuities or sickness benefits.
Then he said that the Social Insurance Institution will receive approximately PLN 90 billion from the state for 2026. — This year, ZUS planned about PLN 80 billion, but we needed PLN 14 billion less. That's why people pay their contributions well, there are fewer retirees and people work longer – he added.
Poland is at risk of implosion
The latest data from the Central Statistical Office are ominous. They show that in 2060 the population of Poland will be 28.4 million. Current data indicate approximately 37 million Poles. This means a decrease of 24.3%. compared to 2024. In turn, there will be more people of non-working age than of working age.
What is also disturbing is the fact that fertility will still remain at the very low level observed in 2024. In the years 2000-2017, the fertility rate ranged from 1.22 (in 2003) to 1.45 (in 2017). In the following years, a systematic decline in the indicator was observed, and in 2024 a value of 1.10 was recorded – the historically lowest.
And life expectancy will increase. In the current forecast, it is on average 85.14 for women and 78.63 for men in 2060. The new simulation assumes an increase by approximately two years to 87.19 and 81.29, respectively.
All this means that there will be more elderly people than children and young people. This is visible in simulations already for 2040. Then after “80” in our country there will be 3.2 percent. population, while those aged up to nine years old – only 2.9 percent.
Read also: A worst-case scenario for Poland. We are facing a demographic implosion
Poland is at risk of implosion
Moreover, the president of ZUS was also asked about the demographic problem in the “Onet Rano. Finansowo” program.
When asked whether Poland is at risk of demographic implosion, that is, as it were, internal annihilation – the extinction of the country due to a dramatic decline in population, he replied: “We're in danger if we don't prepare for it.
