ETS2 will hit Europeans hard on their pocket. “Prices will rise rapidly”

Prices of emission rights will increase quickly from the beginning of the ETS2 system and in 2030 are to reach the summit of 149 euros – he wrote in the recent report from the CO2 Kobize market, quoting BNEF analysis. Prices are to drop to around 80 euros in 2031–2035.

“BNEF analysts predict that the prices of emission allowances will increase rapidly from the beginning of the ETS2 system. The reason will be a limited number of available permissions, resulting from the ambitious climate goals of the EU, and persistent demand – many sectors covered by the system do not yet have widely available, profitable alternatives to reduce emissions,” they wrote in their report.

“Already in 2030, the prices of emission allowances are to reach the summit of EUR 149. Even additional supply, temporarily launched to the market from the Ministry of Education reserve under the ETS2, is not enough to stop this growth in a short period” – they added.

According to BNEF, permissions prices should fall and in the years 2031–2035 they are to be on average at the level of around 80 EUR.

“The emissions will continue to decrease and in 2035 will reach a level of 538 million tons of CO2, which means a 57 % decrease compared to the level of 2025” – Kobize analysts wrote, quoting Bloombergnef (BNEF) analysis.

The report reminded that from 2027 a new emission allowance trading system – ETS2 – which will cover all 27 EU countries, as well as Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway will begin to apply in EU.

This system will apply primarily to emissions from road transport and buildings, but Member States will be able to voluntarily expand its scope with other sectors.

“Thanks to the launch of ETS2, the total range of values ​​of prices imposed on the CO2 broadcast in EEA will increase to 78 percent of all emissions – this is a significant step compared to the existing ETS1 system, which covers about 40 percent of emissions. Both systems will work in parallel, based on a similar mechanism + Cap -Andrade + – i.e. limiting the total number of powers and enabling trading in the market ” – explained.

The purpose of the ETS2 is to reduce emissions by 642 million tons of CO2 to 2030, which corresponds to the decrease by 43 percent. relative to the level of 2005 (PAP Biznes)

JZ/ ry/