In the SW Research survey, the question: “Do you think the government of the KO-PSL-Polska 2050-New Left coalition will survive until the end of its term?” 41.8 percent respondents answered “yes”, 37.8 percent was of the opposite opiniona 20.4 percent it had no opinion. — “The survival of the government is slightly more likely to be predicted by men (44 percent) than women (40 percent). Taking into account age, respondents over 50 are most likely to have this opinion (46 percent). Due to the level of education, this opinion is most often expressed by respondents with basic vocational education (47 percent). Almost every second person does not expect the government coalition to break up.” (48%) from cities with a population of 200,000 or more. up to 499 thousand inhabitants,” comments Przemysław Wesołowski, president of SW Research.
Turbulences in the coalition and possible scenarios
After two years of government, the coalition is struggling with fluctuations in support and the loss of part of its parliamentary support. Polls indicate that if the elections were held today, only KO would keep the result above the electoral threshold – 34.05%. support (193 seats). PiS would win 27.91 percent. (162 seats), Confederation 16.43 percent (81 seats), and the Confederation of the Crown of Poland 7.1 percent. (24 seats). The remaining current KO coalition partners would be below the threshold.
The study was conducted by the SW Research research agency among users of the SW Panel online panel on October 14-15, 2025. The analysis covered a group of 800 Internet users over 18 years of age. The sample was selected in a random quota manner. The structure of the sample was adjusted using analytical weight to correspond to the structure of Poles over 18 years of age in terms of key characteristics related to the subject of the study. When constructing the weight, socio-demographic variables were taken into account.
