Exports of European Union countries to the United States amounted to EUR 32.9 billion in August. This is a lot and the USA is therefore the largest recipient of goods made in the EU, but there has been a real collapse.
August was the first month of new tariffs imposed on most countries in the world by the Donald Trump administration – in the case of the EU, these were mainly 15% tariffs – and this affected the popularity of EU products among American customers. Exports fell by as much as 22.2%, or by EUR 9.4 billion year on year.
Counting from the beginning of the year, i.e. in eight months, it does not look so bad, because exports from the EU to the USA amounted to EUR 384 billion and were 9.4% higher. (+EUR 33.1 billion) compared to the same period of the previous year. Importers in the United States stocked up before the tariffs were implemented. But three more months like August and the surplus will be exhausted.
Let's take a look at who in the EU lost the most from the new tariffs. Poland is one of the victims.
Those most harmed by US tariffs
It's probably no surprise that Germany was hit the hardest in terms of sales value. Their exports in August were almost EUR 3 billion lower year on year, or 24%. and amounted to EUR 9.7 billion. Moreover, counting from the beginning of the year, they have already decreased by 7.4%, i.e. by almost EUR 8 billion to EUR 99.5 billion.
However, if compared to the size of the economy, Ireland was hit the hardest. In August, exports from this country to the USA fell by as much as 38.6%. y/y, i.e. by EUR 2.6 billion to EUR 4.1 billion. At the same time, it is the country through which inventories in American warehouses are accumulated the most, because in the eight months of the year there is an increase of as much as 86.5%, i.e. by EUR 39 billion to EUR 84.2 billion.
The third most affected country is Italy. Here, exports in August dropped by 21.1%. y/y (-0.9 billion euros). Although there is still an increase in exports of 6.9% from the beginning. (+EUR 3 billion), at this rate there will be growth in three or four months.
In percentage terms, the following companies lost the most in August: Austria (-54% yoy, -645 million euros), Finland (-40.5% yoy, -211 million euros) and the above-mentioned Ireland (-38.6% yoy, -2.6 billion euros).
Poland was not immune from the consequences of the new customs order. Our exports of goods to the USA in August decreased by 15.9%. y/y, i.e. by EUR 149 million. Since the beginning of the year, we have only recorded a slight increase (+0.1%), so from September, American tariffs will reduce our GDP.
A shrinking US surplus
The condition of many EU economies was based on exports to the USA, and specifically on the surplus of exports over imports. In August, the EU lost as much as 57.7%. surplus from the previous year, but the surplus still exists and is not small, which means that the tariffs have reduced it, but not completely.
In August, the EU exported EUR 6.5 billion more to the United States than it imported, and in eight months it has a gigantic surplus of EUR 21 billion, 16.6 percent. higher year to year. In August alone, however, as we mentioned above, the net profit shrank by as much as EUR 8.8 billion year on year.
In the case of Germany, the surplus decreased by EUR 2.7 billion to EUR 4.1 billion, Ireland's by EUR 2.4 billion to EUR 2.3 billion, and Italy's by EUR 1.9 billion to EUR 1.2 billion.
In the case of Poland, there is no surplus, because large imports of liquefied gas from the USA mean that we have a minus with the world's largest economy. In August, it was EUR 54 million in the red, which is still EUR 178 million better year-on-year. Gas just got cheaper.
