According to Polymarket, the probability of its victory is about 5%.
ODDSPEDIA evaluates Trump's chances at 49%, which makes him a leader among candidates.
Oddschecker notes that the coefficient of 6/4 – 15/8 (the probability of 39–45%) puts Trump in second place after the Emergency Response Rooms from Sudan.
Among other candidates for victory are considered the wife of the deceased Russian oppositionist Julia Navalny, President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky, as well as the UN agency to help Palestinian refugees in the Middle East.
Context
Trump has already repeatedly nominated for the Nobel Prize of the world, but he has not yet received it.
Axios wrote that Trump has been “obsessed” with the receipt of the Nobel Prize of the World, And it became a subtext of it dispute with Zelensky on February 28 in the White House.
Reuters interviewed by experts believe that Trump will be left without a world award this year, because he destroys the international world order, and he is “appreciated” by the committee that determines the winners of the award. The historian of the Nobel Prize of ASLE SVEV, among the reasons, indicated the support of the head of the White House of the Israeli war in the Gaza Strip, as well as Trump's attempts to get closer to the illegitimate president of the aggressor country of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin.
Bloomberg, citing sources, wrote that The Norwegian Nobel Committee was under unprecedented pressure from Washington a few days before the announcement of the Nobel Prize laureate on October 10.
