publication
2025-09-30 10:00
September brought the unexpected stabilization of CPI inflation in Poland. The annual dynamics of the consumer goods price index remained 3%, but still exceeding the 2.5%NBP target.
In September 2025, the price index of consumer goods and services (CPI) was about 2.9% higher compared to the same month last year – according to the rapid respect of the Central Statistical Office.
This is the same as the one that is finally reported in August. And lower than the expectations of most economists, because the market consensus assumed a result of 3.0. Thus, CPI inflation below 3.0% remained the second month in a row. Although this is still a reading exceeding the 2.5 % goal of the National Bank of Poland, it is already The third month in a row CPI inflation is within the permissible (+/- 1 percentage point) deviation from the purpose.
However, in relation to August, the price index of consumer goods (i.e. CPI) remained unchanged (0.0% MDM) and this is the second month in a row. Also in August, CPI remained at the level of July, when it was 0.3% higher than in June.
As a result, the average monthly CPI growth for the last three months was 0.17%. When maintaining such a moment, for the next 12 months for the year, CPI inflation would be 2.02%. Therefore, it would be within the acceptable deviation (+/- 1 percentage point) from the 2.5 % inflation target of the National Bank of Poland.
However, it is worth remembering that for only 4 of the previous 71 months CPI shaped inflation under this purpose. As a result, the NBP inflationary goal was permanently exceeded both in medium and long terms. The average (geometric) CPI inflation for the last 5 years was 7.48%, in 10 years it is 4.48%, and in 20 years it was at the level of 3.35%.
The average annual CPI inflation for 2024 was 3.6%according to the Central Statistical Office. This is still too much, but also clearly less than in previous years. The result for 2023 is 11.4%, in 2022 the average annual inflation was 14.4%, and in 2021 5.1%.
According to the rapid respect of the Central Statistical Office in relation to September 2024, the food and non -alcoholic drinks (by 4.2%) increased the most. Energy carriers cost us 2.4% more. However, fuels for private means of transport (-4.9% yard) turned out to be cheaper.
It was “quick respect” of September inflation, so we do not have full data broken down into individual categories and specific goods listed. This information will be shown by a report that will be published in mid -October.
