Over the past year, about 100,000 were released in the German industry. people. Most in the automotive industry. However, according to experts, this is not the end of reduction. We checked what is the reason for this situation in our western neighbors and whether it can also translate into employment reductions in Poland.
The German industry is currently struggling with the largest wave of dismissals since the financial crisis from several years ago. In recent months, thousands of employees have lost employment in motorization, chemistry, transport and technology sector.
It is impossible to “hamster” jobs anymore
According to Dr. Piotr Arak from the Faculty of Economic Sciences of the University of Warsaw, the Chief Economist of Velobank, From the middle of last year to half the present in the German industry, over 100,000 were released. people, of which over half, as many as 52 thousand in the automotive industry.
– These are the consequences of the economic slowdown in Germany and the generally bad situation of the local industry, as well as hamstering for several years of jobs in fear of dismissal costs, higher than in other European countries, or the need to communicate with trade unions. It was because of them that such radical movements were not decided before. However, in recent months, cost pressure on the side of companies has caused that these reductions have already been necessary – says Bankier.pl Dr. Piotr Arak.
– Currently, the unemployment rate in Germany is growing and reaching 3 million unemployed to the record. I think that the layoffs will continue, because German companies will try to increase their marginity and level of automation of production. Therefore, employment in industry will continue to fall.
Thousands of people without a job
Among German companies that have announced the largest group layoffs include:
A chance for too much in South America
According to the chief economist of Velo Bank, Some of the plants that operated in Germany to look for cost efficiency or transferred their production to other latitudes due to energy prices, as chemical companies did, or decided that this is not paying off at all because of high personal costs.
– The German economy has high hopes for the contract with Mercosur. He hopes that it will deliver products to the South American market in more than to the USA and China. However, this may be illusory, because the European Union may fail to sign this agreement. However, the reduced purchase of European goods on the Chinese market indicates that the problems will not disappear. That is why I think that the problems of the automotive sector will not end this year and in 2026. They will definitely be present, waiting for the Germans to somehow restart their engine – sums up Dr. Piotr Arak.
Restructuring will not help much?
According to Mateusz Żydek, an expert on the labor market of the Randstad Research Institute, the reduction of full -time jobs in Germany is focused in key sectors, which traditionally determined the export power of the country, primarily in the automotive industry and the branches of industry.
– A characteristic feature of the current wave of layoffs is its structural and long -term character, which goes beyond ordinary reactions to business slowdown. These activities are the result of non -competitive, chronically high operating costs, related to the prices of raw materials, as well as the costs of work, delayed technological transformation and intensive global competition, mainly from China – says Bankier.pl Mateusz Żydek.
– Long -term horizons of implemented employment reduces indicate that these cuts are not only a response to a temporary decline in demand. It is a rather strategic adaptation to a permanent change in the economic situation and the loss of the competitiveness of the traditional German industrial base.
In his opinion, Even if the economic situation is improved in a short -term horizon, a wave of restructuring in the industry, especially in the automotive sector, forced by moving to new technologies, will continue.
Decrease in employment visible among young people
According to the Randstad expert, despite the relatively low unemployment rate against other OECD countries, The German labor market is struggling with stagnation and a growing number of the unemployed.
– The decline in employment is especially visible among young employees, and this phenomenon is also imposed on technological transformation, which reduces the number of beginner positions – explains Mateusz Jewish.
– Until German companies regained competitiveness, transition of technological changes and changes in business models, we can expect further restructuring, which may result in an increase in unemployment. Importantly, a slowdown on the labor market and a lower rate of wage growth are a factor limiting internal consumption, which further deepens stagnation – says Mateusz Żydek.
A chance to get out of the crisis?
According to the representative of Randstad, In the forecasts of economists there are some signals about the possible leaving the slowdown.
– The IFO Institute forecasts Germany's GDP growth by 1.3 percent. in 2026 and 1.6 percent in 2027, and this reflection is to be partly driven by new public expenses for infrastructure and defense. However, there are many indications that the reflection will be powered by an increase in productivity, including by digitizing and automation of processes, and fiscal impulses, but will not translate into quick creation of new, regular jobs in the traditional manufacturing sector, which is responsible for most of the employment – adds Mateusz Jewish.
According to the expert, a slowdown on the labor market in Germany does not appear symmetrically in all branches of the economy.
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The service sector shows greater immunity and is more able to generate new jobsalthough not on a scale compensating for losses in industry – he explains.
Are Poland also threatened with large exemptions?
According to Mateusz Jewish, the risk of a similar scenario does not seem likely in Poland in the near future.
– First of all, the German industry was largely connected to the flywheel of the local economy and export, i.e. motoring. There are no such relationships in our country – believes the representative of Randstad. – The fact is, however, that in Poland there are automotive plants associated with Western economies, as well as companies producing automotive components. It is those companies, as well as some companies from other sectors that have been focused on export to Germany, are exposed to the effects of slowing down our neighbor.
Autumn will show what to do next
According to the estimates of the Polish Economic Institute, a few years ago, the demand of German final recipients for Polish goods and services generated 7.1 percent. Polish GDP. Additionally, 2.6 percent Polish GDP depended on the German export of goods in which Polish components are contained.
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The upcoming autumn period will be crucial for industrial processing, which will show whether new orders from Germany will come to the Polish economy.
Without such orders, cooling the labor market in Poland may persist – believes Mateusz Jewish. – However, our companies have been actively looking for other markets, and in recent years, internal consumption was also a solid basis for their development. More flexibility and innovation also speaks in favor of the domestic economy. The key is to further support investments in highly specialized and digital sectors, less susceptible to demand shocks in traditional industry. The more that Poland is less and less able to compete with other countries with operating costs, including due to the rising labor costs. In this field, European Union countries with experience shorter than us are becoming more competitive, as well as Balkan countries and other regions of the world. The development of the defense sector is also an opportunity, which can dismiss the risks similar to those that are visible in the German economy – adds the expert.
It is necessary to change the industrial strategy
According to the Association of Distributors and Producers of Automotive parts, Europe needs a coherent and long -term industrial strategy, not ad hoc actions. He points to several key pillars here:
- reduction of structural costs – energy, work, raw materials, simplification of regulations,
- Support for investments in new technologies – especially in batteries, electronics and software, where Europe is standing today,
- Protection of production volume – mechanisms of local content and encouragement for production in the EU,
- Procket policy modeled on the USA or China – a combination of operational subsidies, Capex support and active attraction of investments, instead of penalties and burdens policy.
– If Europe does not implement a two -track strategy that increases competitiveness and at the same time protecting local production, the automotive industry in our region will lose mass place and key competences. Then losing to China and other Best-Cost Countries will become a fact-believes Tomasz Bęben, president of the board of the Association of Distributors and producers of automotive parts.
