Lack of competition of gold in opposition, an advantage or a disadvantage? “It can become a problem”

The latest polls place gold in the first place in the voting intention. Not the same thing happens with the other opposition parties, SOS Romania and can be at the limit of entering the Parliament. Analysts say that, in this context, gold is advantageous but also disadvantaged.

The party led by Simion is the head of the list in the Profimedia photo parliament polls polls

In the parliamentary elections of December 1, 2024, gold, sauce and have obtained one third of the mandates. Since then, Gold has grown in the intention to vote, especially in the context of the presidential elections in which he qualified in the second round and the party candidate, George Simion. The other two formations have lost the electorate in his favor, shows the director of Inscop, the sociologist Remus Stefureac:

“Gold lived with a large part of the votes that were expressed for PO and SOS at the parliamentary elections. It is one of the sources of growing this party. So it became much more visible after the parliamentary elections, practically, having the presidential polarization between George Simion and the other candidates, respectively Nicușor Dan. Gold has become much more visible in this context. He took over an important part of the voters of the two parties and, of course, and others. It's a transfer of votes. (…) For now, this is a peak for this party, maximum, at least historical, but we will see if it will maintain this level or, and against the background of other parties, it will decrease. ”

The sociologist, however, draws attention that “It is premature to make such estimates three years before the elections, we can instead, based on the surveys to look on the main trends. And the main main trends are those in which gold is growing, at a very high level. The maximum level it has had so far and the other parties are on stagnation or decrease ”. Therefore, the party remains without competition on the electorate collected in recent years by the three formations, gold and head of SOS Romania, Diana Şoșoaca, between 2020-2024, and then gold, SOS and Pot, the first party to sit behind the former presidential candidate Călin Georgescu.

The advantages and disadvantages of the gold monopoly

“At the past elections and today, when we speak the same, for gold the lack of competition is beneficial. Gold today probably capitalizes that electoral basin almost in the complement. He also did it in the past elections, with small exceptions, because SOS and they could get into Parliament and steal from the electorate. So today it is in a better position than then, in my opinion. The same thing would be stated in the perspective of future choices. Without competition, Gold will almost entirely capitalize the electoral basin he wants to represent ”, explains the political consultant Adrian Zăbavă for “Adevărul”.

On the other hand, the political consultant points out, gold would not have partners for government:

“This singular, solitary representation, to say, of the basin can become, for gold a problem in the contextuality of a government, the lack of partners. Which I saw in other Western countries, where, so, important parties, with important scores, extremist parties, so-called sovereign, nationalist, not to the elections, Allies with which to make majority.

Today, the reality is that gold, against the background of social dissatisfaction, amid the lack of confidence in the other parties on the political scene and the old parties on the political scene, in the hypothesis of elections that would take place today, would have a chance to make the majority alone. In the event that Gold would reach a percentage of 40% representation in the next Parliament, I think it would be so strong that some parliamentarians from other parties could be found, once in the Parliament, to make a majority somehow, to lead a majority in Parliament. It is true, you cannot do this at 30% or 25%. There it is clear that, without governing partners, you cannot reach the government. But with a gold at 40% in the future Parliament, I think, no matter what they were saying in the election campaign, there would be some parliamentarians who would somehow take gold to government. ”

In fact, the political consultant shows that at present, in Parliament, “”There are a significant number of parliamentarians who have mainly entered the SOS and Pot lists, which are “a gray force in Parliament” today, which can be used in one way or another “. The group of former members can and SOS from the Chamber of Deputies voted side by side recently deposited gold against the Minister of the Environment, Diana Buzoianu.

What the figures look like

In the elections of December 1, 2024, Gold obtained 18.30% in the Senate and 18.01% in the Chamber of Deputies. SOS Romania had 7.76% in the Senate and 7.36% in the Chamber of Deputies, and may have 6.39% in the Senate and 6.46% in the Chamber of Deputies.

A recent Inscop survey that measures the voting intention for parliamentary place in the first place, with a score of 40.8%, ie with an increase of almost 3 percent compared to May 2025, when it had just over 38%, followed by PSD by 17.9%, PNL with 15.2%and USR with 12.8%. I can have 3.3%, ie below the 5%electoral threshold, followed by the UDMR with 4%and SOS Romania with 2.8%. Thus, 45.9% would have the parties of the power entering the Parliament, and in the opposition it would remain only gold. Thus, a majority with PSD would collect 58.7%.

An avant -garde survey also conducted in September places gold in the first place with 41%. It is followed by PSD with 19%, PNL with 13%, USR with 12%and UDMR with 6%. The parties that would no longer catch the Parliament are SOS Romania and can, each with 2%.

60% of gold voters would vote new parties

In the event of new parties, according to another Inscop analysis, 60% of the gold voters would be willing to vote new parties, and 71% of the gold voters are of the opinion that “All the parties existing now in Romania should disappear and be replaced with new ones.”

The head of state states that the data that places gold in the first place does not indicate “great love for gold”, but a “distrust of the parties that governed or govern Romania”. Also, the president denies the possibility of a scenario in which the PSD could join gold:

“I think everyone knows my historian with PSD. I don't think it's a surprise here, but with all the criticisms I have brought, the PSD is not the party to take Romania in that direction. This scenario does not exist.”explained Nicușor Dan at Digi24, asked if he would name George Simion Premier if he had proposed by gold and PSD.