Poland will see a ricochet for US decisions regarding Belarus? An expert with greater pressure on our border

For the freedom of 52 political prisoners, the United States paid a photo in Minsk a photo of sanctions from the Belarusian air carrier Bieław. – This can result in an increase in pressure on our border – warned Tadeusz Iwański from the Eastern Studies Center.

During the meeting with Lukashenko last Thursday, the Messenger of Donald Trump, John Coale announced the abolition of sanctions to the Belarusian state airlines Bieławia (Belavia), imposed in mid -2022.

According to the leader of the Belarusian opposition, the light This movement can be beneficial for Russia, because it will allow it to acquire spare parts through the Belarusian carrier.

Journalist Belsat, Jakub Biernat, with whom she talked to PAP, considers such a development of accidents to be very likely. He also noted that this would not be an unprecedented situation.

“Where Belarus can do sanctions, and both ways,” he emphasized.

He reminded that when in response to sanctions imposed by the West in 2014, Russia introduced an embargo to western food, Belarus quickly became a hub of Polish apples.

He added that the Belarusian authorities have abilities and generated systems to earn in this way. Of course, this applies to companies related to Lukashenko and his surroundings. – I think that with spare parts to aircraft will be similar – trading them will become an additional source of income and allow you to get the next points in the eyes of Kremlin officials – Biernat assessed.

Another PAP interlocutor, Tadeusz Iwański, head of the team of Belarus, Ukraine and Moldova at the Center for Eastern Studies, emphasized that Russia has already created channels that allow her to avoid sanctions in bringing spare parts and servicing the aviation fleet. And in this situation, Belarus can become another such channel.

The expert pointed out that For the United States, a photo of sanctions is a small thing, but for the regime in Minsk – very important. – Due to European sanctions, but also American, the Belarusian carrier did not fly to Europe, but he flew to Russia and Russia. The decision will allow the resumption of connections and launch new ones – argued Iwański.

In his opinion, this can mean a problem that Poland will feel more severely. As the OSW expert explained, in the last dozen or so months, Minsk has a greatly activated relationship with such countries as Pakistan, Iran or Libya. This is expressed in concluding visa -free traffic contracts and starting direct flights. Combined with the improvement of the National Belarusian carrier's fleet, it may in the near future to work an increase in the number of people trying to get illegally, among others to Poland.

-For a long time we have about 100-200 attempts to cross the Polish border from the Belarusian side a day. It is people who came to Russia, and then by land got to Belarus and finally to the borders with Poland, Lithuania and Latvia – explained Iwański and added that if the improvement of the Belarusian fleet enables resumption and opening of connections with countries that are donors of gainful migration, this will result in increasing pressure at the border.

According to the expert, in his opinion, this does not mean that the Americans withdrew sanctions to deliberately increase the pressure on the external borders of the European Union. He reminded that the case of Bieławia had already appeared earlier, during visits of high American officials – John Cale, Christopher Smith or Keith Kellogg. – This time it happened, and the price was the freedom of 52 political prisoners, including the presidential candidate, Mikoły Statkiewicz, who decided not to leave Belarus – he emphasized.

According to the Airfleets Aviation industry website, The Bieławia fleet is several machines, including 10 Boeings in versions 737-800, 737-300 and 737 max 8, 5 Embraers 195 and 175 and 3 Airbus A330-200.

Currently, Bieławia is implementing connections from Minsk to Russia (Moscow, Saint Petersburg, Kazan, Murmansk, Jekaterinburg, Sochi, Królewiec, Machachkała), Turkey (Istanbul), Georgia (Batumi, Kutaisi, Tbilisi), Armenia (Eryvań), Azerbaijan (Baku), Kirgistan (Taszkent) and China (urumczi).

After Russia's full -glass aggression against Ukraine, in February 2022, the European Union, the United States, Great Britain and Canada imposed sanctions on Russia, which included, among others Her air sector. Air space was closed for Russian carriers, a ban on the supply of aircraft, spare parts and equipment, as well as a ban on servicing and insuring Russian machines.

Sanctions also meant suspension of leasing contracts. In response to these activities, Russia introduced the law enabling the takeover of the machines it used. A total of about 400 aircraft were lost to leasing companies. The Irish company Aercap – Moscow “nationalized” almost 150 planes and parts with a total value of almost USD 3.5 billion.

Sanctions forced Moscow to look for solutions to keep the fleet. Older Russian constructions such as Tu-214 or IL-96 were exploited on a larger scale. The Russians also try to produce spare parts for Western machines and use “cannibalization”, i.e. dismantling older aircraft to obtain parts for newer machines.

Russia also acquires parts using a network of intermediaries and deserts in countries that have not supported Western restrictions. The key points in the supply chain are China, some countries of Central Asia and the Middle East. As in July last year, he reported “Le Monde”, and Türkiye is also to be such a Donor.

This system is not only expensive, but has serious consequences for security. The components obtained in this way are often not original, they do not have certificates, and their technical condition is unknown. This results in more aviation incidents.

While in 2022 36 were recorded in Russian civil aviation, in 2023 this number was 74. As “Nowaja Gazieta. Europe”, last year there were as many as 208 such events.

The most serious of them was the disaster of the An-24 passenger aircraft under Tynda in the Amur region in the east of the country, which took place on July 24 this year. As a result of the tragedy, 48 people were killed. The aircraft has been operated since 1976 (PAP)

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