Reports indicate that Saudi Aramco may be considering a withdrawal from Poland, a topic increasingly discussed in industry circles. Daniel Obajtek, former CEO of Orlen who previously fostered ties with the Saudi oil giant, has publicly criticized the current leadership of the company on social media. Aramco holds stakes in three key entities in Poland, including the Gdańsk Refinery.
As the world’s largest oil company, Saudi Aramco boasts a market capitalization of $1.6 trillion, overshadowing its closest competitor, Exxon Mobil, valued at $733 billion. The company’s immense profitability is attributed to its highly efficient reserves.
Aramco stands as the leading crude oil exporter globally, managing overseas sales between 6 and 8 million barrels per day, with refining capabilities also reaching 6 million barrels per day. The taxes paid by the company are a crucial component of the Saudi Arabian budget.
Obajtek previously relied on Aramco for securing oil supplies for Orlen, but recent reports suggest a potential pullout by Aramco from Poland. In response to a report by “Rzeczpospolita,” he has criticized the current Orlen management on X, claiming they have “butchered the cooperation”.
Two Possible Scenarios
According to reports, two scenarios are being considered. The first involves a complete withdrawal of Saudi Aramco from Poland, while the second, deemed more likely, focuses on selling Aramco Fuels Poland, the company’s most valuable asset in the country. The other two entities include the Gdańsk Refinery and Air BP Aramco Poland.
Aramco acquired these assets amid the Polish government’s plans and Orlen’s CEO to merge with the Lotos Group. The European Commission conditionally approved the merger, one stipulation being the divestiture of certain stakes in the refinery and the aforementioned companies. Obajtek chose Aramco as a partner, facilitating oil supply agreements.
Aramco Fuels Poland
Among its Polish assets, Aramco Fuels Poland, which was established in 2021 as Lotos SPV1, holds a 100% stake and is crucial for the company. This subsidiary encompasses wholesale fuel trading and logistics previously associated with the Lotos Group.
Last year, the company reported a net profit of 778 million PLN, following profits exceeding 540 million PLN in each of the two preceding years. Despite these gains, it has not yet distributed dividends and has invested modest amounts, around 40 to 60 million PLN annually. Its revenues exceed 18 billion PLN yearly, contributing 400 to 500 million PLN in various taxes.
By the end of 2025, Aramco Fuels Poland is projected to have 971 million PLN in cash and cash equivalents, making it poised for a substantial dividend payout. Aramco spent about 1 billion PLN to acquire the company, and any potential sale price would likely far exceed this initial investment.
Gdańsk Refinery
Aramco acquired a 30% stake in the Gdańsk Refinery for approximately 1 billion PLN at the end of 2022. At that time, the refinery was reporting significant losses, with net losses of 1.4 billion PLN in 2022 and 452 million PLN in 2021.
However, last year, net profit surged to 311 million PLN, and the following year, it reached 727 million PLN before dropping to 207 million PLN in the subsequent year. Given the current high refining margins for Orlen, the refinery’s current earnings are anticipated to be substantial, with revenues consistently exceeding 3 billion PLN and annual investments around 300 to 400 million PLN. The refinery contributes about 500 million PLN yearly to the state budget through various taxes.
In 2025, the Gdańsk Refinery distributed a profit of 227 million PLN to shareholders, with Aramco’s portion amounting to 68 million PLN gross, translating to 55 million PLN after dividend tax deductions. This represents 5.5% on the 1 billion PLN investment, occurring three years post-acquisition.
Critics of the transaction four years ago pointed out that while Orlen retained 70% ownership, certain strategic decisions require minority shareholder approval from Aramco. Without Aramco’s consent, decisions regarding refinery production profile changes, significant investments, asset disposals, and long-term oil supply contracts could be complicated.
Aramco also has a larger representation on the supervisory board than its shareholding would suggest, with three representatives from Orlen and two from Aramco.
Air BP Aramco Poland
This joint venture, involving Aramco (and previously Lotos) and BP in Poland, specializes in aviation fuel. The term “Air” signifies its focus on aviation fuel, sourcing it from refineries to supply aviation operations.
It competes with Orlen Aviation and local airport service providers. This is the smallest of Aramco’s Polish holdings, as it holds 50% stake, with the remainder owned by BP through its German subsidiary, BP Europe.
Revenue for this company did not exceed 1 billion PLN, with last year’s profit at 25 million PLN. In 2024, the company paid a dividend of 6.5 million PLN.
