In a recent assessment, analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have raised serious doubts about President Vladimir Putin’s claims regarding Russian military achievements on the frontlines. Despite supposed advances, ISW reported that Russian forces lost 175.18 square kilometers of territory in September 2026, even considering their infiltrations into areas where they do not hold control.
Putin’s assertions of capturing 1,301 square kilometers in Ukraine during the same month have been labeled as profoundly disconnected from reality, with ISW characterizing them as akin to hallucinations. This figure, they note, is 2.5 times greater than previous months’ reported gains, casting further doubt on the credibility of the Russian narrative.
Experts have criticized these statements as absurd, suggesting that the Kremlin continues to propagate a fabricated battlefield reality as part of its cognitive warfare strategy aimed at misrepresenting Russian progress. The ISW analysts contemplate whether Putin is aware that his reported figures are inaccurate, speculating that he might be receiving distorted data due to a culture of deceit entrenched in the Russian military command structure.
Earlier reports from ISW indicated that Russian troops lost control over nearly 300 square kilometers between March and September 2026, a period that included Ukraine’s successful counteroffensive operation named “Vivaldi,” which reclaimed at least 147 square kilometers in just a few months. The analysis noted that while Russian forces occupied an estimated 175.54 square kilometers, they simultaneously lost 256.35 square kilometers in September, resulting in a net loss of 80.81 square kilometers, averaging a daily loss of 2.69 square kilometers.
Context
- Since early 2026, Ukrainian forces have liberated 800 square kilometers of territory from occupation, while the Russian army has reportedly gained 890 square kilometers, as stated by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in an interview with The Wall Street Journal on September 23. Zelensky emphasized that the Russian army has suffered approximately 260,000 to 270,000 military casualties in pursuit of these minimal territorial gains.
- According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as of October 3, the total Russian casualties on the battlefield have reached 1,538,950, with an increase of 1,560 casualties reported in one day.
