Ukraine is evaluating the use of Baltic Sea ports for its grain exports, according to a statement from the Ministry of Agriculture in Kyiv. This consideration follows Russia’s similar initiative, as both nations seek alternatives to Black Sea routes that have been affected by ongoing hostilities, as reported by Reuters.
Reports indicate that Russian companies are reconfiguring terminals for fertilizers, coal, and other goods at Baltic and Arctic ports to facilitate grain exports. This change comes in response to Ukrainian drone attacks that have impacted shipping through the Black Sea.
The bulk of Ukrainian goods, primarily grains, has been redirected through three Ukrainian ports on the Danube, after Russian strikes effectively blocked Black Sea ports, which previously handled 90% of Ukraine’s exports.
However, this redirection has increased logistical costs by approximately $50 per metric ton, rendering Ukrainian grains less competitive and causing shipping bottlenecks.
High Costs and Logistical Challenges
The Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture stated that Baltic ports could potentially handle exports of up to 20 million tons of grain. However, utilizing the Baltic route would also add around $100 per ton to export costs.
To offset these expenses, Ukraine would require international support amounting to $2 billion, the ministry noted. It did not specify potential funding sources or how the grains would reach Baltic ports.
Notably, Ukraine does not share a border with the Baltic states, making transit through Poland the most likely route. In 2022 and 2023, Ukraine transported grains via Poland in the early stages of the conflict, but this method faced significant protests from Polish farmers, who argued that cheaper Ukrainian grains posed a threat to local producers.
Currently, Ukraine continues to export grains through its Eastern European neighbors, though the volumes remain relatively low. According to the railway operator Ukrzaliznytsia, only about 340,000 tons were transported via these routes in the first half of September.
As of mid-September, 278 grain wagons were dispatched daily to Eastern Europe, with just 65 heading to Poland. Ukrainian grains are being exported through Poland, Hungary, Romania, and Slovakia.
