According to experts, maritime ports in the Black Sea remain essential for Ukraine’s export capacity. They argue that claims suggesting up to 75% of maritime cargo could be rerouted to alternative routes do not align with actual capacity limitations. “There is currently no alternative to Black Sea ports for Ukraine. At best, we might consider Danube ports and western border crossings as auxiliary options, but they cannot resolve the issues faced by industrial and agricultural exporters,” emphasized the expert.
Ukraine needs to export approximately 5-6 million tons of cargo each month, but the current European transport system lacks the infrastructure to handle such volumes. Furthermore, there is a pressing need to negotiate transit conditions with various countries through which Ukrainian goods must pass.
Experts stress that time is of the essence, with a critical deadline set for the end of the current year. If sufficient export volumes are not secured by this time, significant challenges may arise during the preparation for the next planting season.
Rising logistical costs could diminish the revenues of agricultural producers and limit their ability to purchase fuel, fertilizers, and seeds. “This issue is extremely critical,” the expert noted.
They advocate for Ukraine to focus diplomatic and other efforts on finding mechanisms to restore full service for its maritime cargo flows. While land and river routes might partially offset losses from maritime export restrictions, they cannot substitute for the functionality of Black Sea ports.
