Current reports indicate that Russian forces are aiming to capture the Kramatorsk-Kostyantynivka agglomeration, a crucial part of Ukraine’s defense in northern Donetsk. The aggressors are seeking to get as close as possible to Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.
The situation in Kostyantynivka remains particularly dire. Sources have indicated that military formations from the Southern Group have already infiltrated much of the city, attempting to isolate it from roadways and logistical support.
To the south, Russian troops are trying to break through to Dobropillia, aiming to flank Kostyantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Kramatorsk from the west. Another critical area is around Lyman, where occupiers are attempting to push in from the east.
Military and political analysts consulted by RBK-Ukraine express doubts about an imminent operational breakthrough of the entire Ukrainian defensive line in Donetsk. Nonetheless, they suggest that over the coming months, Ukraine might lose control over Kostyantynivka. They also identify similar risks looming over Lyman and Dobropillia by the end of the year.
If the situation deteriorates for Ukraine, Russian forces could advance closely towards Sloviansk and Kramatorsk by the end of winter. However, advancing towards these cities will not be easy for the Russians, as they must navigate well-prepared defensive lines and enhance their logistics while continuously facing strikes from Ukrainian drones, according to one source.
Context
- Kostyantynivka is considered the “gateway” to the part of Donbas controlled by Ukraine. It is part of a fortified defensive line in Donetsk Oblast, along with Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka, and other locations, which has been holding back the Russian advance since 2014. In February, ISW noted that losing these cities would facilitate further Russian movement deeper into Ukraine.
- On July 3, 2026, Russian propaganda aired a video of a meeting with military officials allegedly conducted by the illegitimate Russian President Vladimir Putin, claiming that Kostyantynivka had been captured by his forces.
- This was refuted by the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, stating that fighting for the city was ongoing. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky accused Moscow of imitating battlefield “achievements” to impress U.S. President Donald Trump, suggesting that Putin visit Kostyantynivka to meet, as it was supposedly already “controlled” by Russia. However, Putin’s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov dismissed Zelensky’s proposal.
- On July 18, the 425th Separate Assault Regiment “Skelya” announced the clearing of Russian forces from the center of Kostyantynivka and the raising of the Ukrainian flag in one of the city’s buildings.
