Russia is preparing to mobilize at least 500,000 individuals this autumn, according to recent statements from Oleksiy Kovalenko, head of the Center for Strategic Communications under the National Security and Defense Council (NSDC). Kovalenko noted that some of the newly mobilized personnel could be deployed to the front lines within weeks following their conscription.
He further explained that a portion of these military recruits will undergo training for a month in anticipation of possibly opening a new front. “We will face a very intensive autumn and winter, and we must withstand challenging infantry battles, where personnel, drones, and other lethal tools will converge,” Kovalenko stated.
Kovalenko cited assurances from Russian President Vladimir Putin’s illegitimate administration, including First Deputy Chief of Staff Sergey Kiriyenko and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov, that this strategy would lead to victory over Ukraine. “I know for certain that they are mistaken,” he emphasized.
According to Kovalenko, unity and effectiveness will be essential in the upcoming months for Ukraine.
Context
- On May 18, Ukrainian Presidential Office Deputy Head Brigadier General Pavlo Palisa stated that Putin might consider announcing mobilization after the State Duma elections scheduled for this fall.
- On May 27, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky asserted that Russia is gearing up for additional mobilization, emphasizing that this involves at least tens of thousands more recruits.
- On June 1, Andriy Yusov, a representative of the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine’s Defense Ministry, indicated that the Russian military leadership is increasingly struggling to recruit personnel for the war. Reports suggest that the inflow of new recruits in Moscow fell by a third in spring 2026 compared to the same period in 2025.
- On July 10, the Russian publication “Možem ob’yasnit” reported that the Kremlin is discussing tightening controls on citizens’ travel abroad. Media reports indicate that the Russian Foreign Ministry has begun preparing documents for potential exit visas.
