In July, the Russian military escalated its attacks on Ukraine’s port infrastructure, leading to substantial losses in the country’s grain export capacity. According to maritime security firm Ambrey, drone strikes targeted Odesa, Ukraine’s largest seaport, resulting in a loss of approximately one-third of its export capabilities.
Maria Belykova, a grain market analyst from Dnipro, highlighted in an interview with the Financial Times that Russia has been attacking ports and terminals for four consecutive days. Consequently, she noted, “ships are now hesitant to enter” these ports.
Due to the ongoing assaults, grain purchases in Ukrainian ports have virtually halted, while shipping companies are no longer offering vessels for transportation.
Russia and Ukraine account for nearly one-third of global wheat exports, and these attacks jeopardize one of the world’s crucial grain export routes, which serves as a vital source of income for Ukraine.
Conversely, Russia is also facing a decline in maritime exports, partially due to safety risks for shipping in the Sea of Azov, following Ukraine’s intensified attacks on fuel tankers and support vessels.
On Thursday, wheat futures prices on the Chicago Exchange surged to a two-year high of $6.95 per bushel. Meanwhile, prices for milling wheat on the Paris Exchange reached their highest level in 17 months.
Andrey Sizov, managing director of consulting firm SovEcon, warned of serious consequences; export forecasts for both Russia and Ukraine may need significant downward revisions, potentially reducing global wheat and grain stocks.
Currently, traders are discussing the possibility of redirecting some grain exports via river routes through ports on the Danube for further offloading at the port of Constanța on Romania’s Black Sea coast, a strategy previously employed at the start of the war, according to Belykova.
Context
- In December 2025, illegitimate Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened to “expand the nomenclature” of attacks on “port facilities, ships, and vessels entering Ukrainian ports,” claiming the “most radical way” would be to “cut Ukraine off from the sea.”
- On July 16, 2026, Ukraine’s Marine Ports Administration reported that Russian attacks intensified in July, with 23 strikes on Ukrainian ports and 17 attacks on civilian vessels in the first two weeks of the month. These assaults resulted in the deaths of 11 individuals, including port workers and foreign sailors. Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, 1,002 port infrastructure facilities have been damaged or partially destroyed, and 221 civilian vessels have been affected, with 283 civilians injured.
